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In the paper several application techniques of MonteCarlo (MC) method applied to thermal analysis of space vehicles are presented. Although these methods are widely used in other engineering domains, their introduction to the thermal one is quite recent and not fully developed in the industrial practice. This paper aims at showing that, even without demanding computation resources (all what presented has been obtained with a single processor PC) MonteCarlo analysis techniques, in a preliminary design phase, can support and integrate engineering judgment of the thermal designer. In particular, it is exploited the applicability of the method to reduced thermal models, with a clear advantage in terms of computation time. An original approach is proposed, and results are shown. The papers shows the applicability of the MC method to the case when experimental data of the uncertain parameters are available, using the bootstrap re-sampling techniques.

We present a framework for the robust optimization of the heat flux distribution for an anti-ice electro-thermal ice protection system (AI-ETIPS) and iced airfoil performance analysis under uncertain conditions. The considered uncertainty regards a lack of knowledge concerning the characteristics of the cloud i.e. the liquid water content and the median volume diameter of water droplets, and the accuracy of measuring devices i.e., the static temperature probe, uncertain parameters are modeled as uniform random variables. A forward uncertainty propagation analysis is carried out using a Monte Carlo approach. The optimization framework relies on a gradient-free algorithm (Mesh Adaptive Direct Search) and three different problem formulations are considered in this work. Two bi-objective deterministic optimizations aim to minimize power consumption and either minimize ice formations or the iced airfoil drag coefficient.