Quantifying Uncertainty in Predictions of Kinetically Modulated Combustion: Application to HCCI Using a Detailed Transportation Fuel Model
Simulation of chemical kinetic processes in combustion engine environments has become ubiquitous towards the understanding of combustion phenomenology, the evaluation of controlling parameters, and the design of configurations and/or control strategies. Such calculations are not free from error however, and the interpretation of simulation results must be considered within the context of uncertainties in the chemical kinetic model. Uncertainties arise due to structural issues (e.g., included/missing reaction pathways), as well as inaccurate descriptions of kinetic rate parameters and thermochemistry. In fundamental apparatuses like rapid compression machines and shock tubes, computed constant-volume ignition delay times for simple, single-component fuels can have variations on the order of factors of 2-4.