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Technical Paper

Vehicle Trajectory Prediction Based on Motion Model and Maneuver Model Fusion with Interactive Multiple Models

Safety is the cornerstone for Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and Autonomous Driving Systems (ADS). To assess the safety of a traffic situation, it is essential to predict motion states of traffic participants in the future with mathematic models. Accurate vehicle trajectory prediction is an important prerequisite for reasonable traffic situation risk assessment and appropriate decision making. Vehicle trajectory prediction methods can be generally divided into motion model based methods and maneuver model based methods. Vehicle trajectory prediction based on motion models can be accurate and reliable only in the short term. While vehicle trajectory prediction based on maneuver models present more satisfactory performance in the long term, these maneuver models rely on machine learning methods. Abundant data should be collected to train the maneuver recognition model, which increases complexity and lowers real-time performance.