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The automotive industry drives some of the most stringent product requirements to ensure long product life and customer satisfaction. To demonstrate compliance with these requirements new and more accurate evaluation methods are needed. Thermal fatigue life in EGR coolers for heavy duty diesel applications have historically been a critical focus for engine OEMs. Being able to accurately evaluate product return rates due to thermal fatigue failures gives the OEM confidence that all end users will be satisfied, and allows program management to properly make fiscal decisions. Additionally, weight and cost optimization can be conducted with greater confidence. This is accomplished by accounting for product variation and application variation in thermal fatigue life evaluations. Including these variations requires a simplified numerical method to calculate product life, as tens of thousands of samples will be run through the analysis to represent real life random variation.