ADOPT: A Historically Validated Light Duty Vehicle Consumer Choice Model
The Automotive Deployment Options Projection Tool (ADOPT) is a light-duty vehicle consumer choice and stock model supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Vehicle Technologies Office. It estimates technology improvement impacts on future U.S. light-duty vehicles sales, petroleum use, and greenhouse gas emissions. ADOPT uses techniques from the multinomial logit method and the mixed logit method to estimate vehicle sales. Specifically, it estimate sales based on the weighted value of key attributes including vehicle price, fuel cost, acceleration, range and usable volume. The average importance of several attributes changes nonlinearly across its range and changes with income. For several attributes, a distribution of importance around the average value is used to represent consumer heterogeneity. The majority of existing vehicle makes, models, and trims are included to fully represent the market. The Corporate Average Fuel Economy regulations are enforced.