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It is widely understood that cold ambient temperatures increase vehicle fuel consumption due to heat transfer losses, increased friction (increased viscosity lubricants), and enrichment strategies (accelerated catalyst heating). However, relatively little effort has been dedicated to thoroughly quantifying these impacts across a large set of real world drive cycle data and ambient conditions. This work leverages experimental dynamometer vehicle data collected under various drive cycles and ambient conditions to develop a simplified modeling framework for quantifying thermal effects on vehicle energy consumption. These models are applied over a wide array of real-world usage profiles and typical meteorological data to develop estimates of in-use fuel economy. The paper concludes with a discussion of how this integrated testing/modeling approach may be applied to quantify real-world, off-cycle fuel economy benefits of various technologies.

The Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator (FASTSim) is a high-level advanced vehicle powertrain systems analysis tool supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Vehicle Technologies Office. FASTSim provides a quick and simple approach to compare powertrains and estimate the impact of technology improvements on light- and heavy-duty vehicle efficiency, performance, cost, and battery life. The input data for most light-duty vehicles can be automatically imported. Those inputs can be modified to represent variations of the vehicle or powertrain. The vehicle and its components are then simulated through speed-versus-time drive cycles. At each time step, FASTSim accounts for drag, acceleration, ascent, rolling resistance, each powertrain component's efficiency and power limits, and regenerative braking. Conventional vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, all-electric vehicles, compressed natural gas vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles are included.

Commercial vehicle fuel economy is known to vary significantly with both positive and negative road grade. Medium- and heavy-duty vehicles operating at highway speeds require incrementally larger amounts of energy to pull heavy payloads up inclines as road grade increases. Non-hybrid vehicles are unable to recapture energy on descent and lose energy through friction braking. While the on-road effects of road grade are well understood, the majority of standard commercial vehicle drive cycles feature no road grade requirements. Additionally, the existing literature offers a limited number of sources that attempt to estimate the on-road energy implications of road grade in the medium- and heavy-duty space. This study uses real-world commercial vehicle drive cycles from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Fleet DNA database to simulate the effects of road grade on fuel economy across a range of vocations, operating conditions, and locations.

The Automotive Deployment Options Projection Tool (ADOPT) is a light-duty vehicle consumer choice and stock model supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Vehicle Technologies Office. It estimates technology improvement impacts on future U.S. light-duty vehicles sales, petroleum use, and greenhouse gas emissions. ADOPT uses techniques from the multinomial logit method and the mixed logit method to estimate vehicle sales. Specifically, it estimate sales based on the weighted value of key attributes including vehicle price, fuel cost, acceleration, range and usable volume. The average importance of several attributes changes nonlinearly across its range and changes with income. For several attributes, a distribution of importance around the average value is used to represent consumer heterogeneity. The majority of existing vehicle makes, models, and trims are included to fully represent the market. The Corporate Average Fuel Economy regulations are enforced.