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As part of the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards, requirements for roof strength need to be met for all vehicles. On the other hand, automobile manufactures need to minimize vehicle mass for fuel economy and other objectives. It is important, therefore, for manufacturers to have a good understanding of the sources of variation in measured roof strength. An accurate estimation of such variation is important to achieving these objectives. This paper presents a method of using CAE simulation and vehicle tests to effectively estimate the range of variability in the roof crush tests. A number of vehicle and test variables which could potentially affect the measured roof strength were chosen, and their sensitivity was evaluated through CAE simulation. This knowledge of the sensitivity was then used to design a small number of vehicle tests, producing an estimation of the variation range in roof strength.