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Journal Article

Predicting Individual Fuel Economy

2011-04-12
2011-01-0618
To make informed decisions about travel and vehicle purchase, consumers need unbiased and accurate information of the fuel economy they will actually obtain. In the past, the EPA fuel economy estimates based on its 1984 rules have been widely criticized for overestimating on-road fuel economy. In 2008, EPA adopted a new estimation rule. This study compares the usefulness of the EPA's 1984 and 2008 estimates based on their prediction bias and accuracy and attempts to improve the prediction of on-road fuel economies based on consumer and vehicle attributes. We examine the usefulness of the EPA fuel economy estimates using a large sample of self-reported on-road fuel economy data and develop an Individualized Model for more accurately predicting an individual driver's on-road fuel economy based on easily determined vehicle and driver attributes. Accuracy rather than bias appears to have limited the usefulness of the EPA 1984 estimates in predicting on-road MPG.
Journal Article

Optimizing and Diversifying the Electric Range of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles for U.S. Drivers

2012-04-16
2012-01-0817
To provide useful information for automakers to design successful plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) products and for energy and environmental analysts to understand the social impact of PHEVs, this paper addresses the question of how many of the U.S. consumers, if buying a PHEV, would prefer what electric ranges. The Market-oriented Optimal Range for PHEV (MOR-PHEV) model is developed to optimize the PHEV electric range for each of 36,664 sampled individuals representing U.S. new vehicle drivers. The optimization objective is the minimization of the sum of costs on battery, gasoline, electricity and refueling hassle.
Technical Paper

Assessing Grid Impact of Battery Electric Vehicle Charging Demand Using GPS-Based Longitudinal Travel Survey Data

2014-04-01
2014-01-0343
This paper utilizes GPS tracked multiday travel activities to estimate the temporal distribution of electricity loads and assess battery electric vehicle (BEV) grid impacts at a significant market penetration level. The BEV load and non-PEV load vary by time of the day and day of the week. We consider two charging preferences: home priority assumes BEV drivers prefer charging at home and would not charge at public charging stations unless the state of charge (SOC) of the battery is not sufficient to cover the way back to home; and charging priority does not require drivers to defer charging to home and assumes drivers will utilize the first available charging opportunity. Both home and charging priority scenarios show an evening peak demand. Charging priority scenario also shows a morning peak on weekdays, possibly due to workplace charging.
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