Reasons for changes in MPG Estimates, Model Year 1978 to the Present
In model year 1983, new car MPG declined for the first time in ten years. Accompanying this decline in MPG, the size of the average car increased, car weights and engine sizes increased and diesel sales declined - all reversing their movements over the previous ten years. Using carline MPG estimates and sales figures, it is estimated that new car MPG declined 0.29 in 1983 after rising 6.70 MPG over the previous four years. Furthermore, it is estimated that actions by new car buyers would have lowered the 1983 MPG 0.40 MPG through the purchase of larger cars, cars with larger engines and fewer diesel engines if the manufacturers had not made some fuel economy improvements and introduced some new high-MPG cars. A simple model of future fuel use increases as a function of MPG levels below a specified level consistent with the CAFE standards shows that the costs of lower fuel economy will only gradually be felt, but that these costs will increase over time and persist for over a decade.