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This paper describes a new method to predict the rupture of spot welds, suitable for vehicle crash simulation. In a crash simulation used for vehicle development process, the calculation is performed assuming that the spot welds in the vehicle do not rupture. However, if some spot welds rupture in test of a prototype vehicle, the simulated deformation and test deformation may not match, resulting in inaccurate estimation of deformation from simulation. Therefore accuracy of predicting the rupture of spot welds is crucial in accurately estimating the deformation and improving reliability of vehicle crash simulation results. The new method to predict the rupture of spot welds which relates axial and shear forces and bending moment of spot weld to stress around nugget has been developed by authors. Based on developed method, the rupture risk of spot welds has been estimated. The new method was applied to estimate the spot weld rupture using three types of specimens.