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Warranty forecasting of repairable systems is very important for manufacturers of mass produced systems. It is desired to predict the Expected Number of Failures (ENF) after a censoring time using collected failure data before the censoring time. Moreover, systems may be produced with a defective component resulting in extensive warranty costs even after the defective component is detected and replaced with a new design. In this paper, we present a forecasting method to predict the ENF of a repairable system using observed data which is used to calibrate a Generalized Renewal Processes (GRP) model. Manufacturing of products may exhibit different production patterns with different failure statistics through time. For example, vehicles produced in different months may have different failure intensities because of supply chain differences or different skills of production workers, for example.

We have recently obtained experimental data and used them to develop computational models to quantify occupant impact responses and injury risks for military vehicles during frontal crashes. The number of experimental tests and model runs are however, relatively small due to their high cost. While this is true across the auto industry, it is particularly critical for the Army and other government agencies operating under tight budget constraints. In this study we investigate through statistical simulations how the injury risk varies if a large number of experimental tests were conducted. We show that the injury risk distribution is skewed to the right implying that, although most physical tests result in a small injury risk, there are occasional physical tests for which the injury risk is extremely large. We compute the probabilities of such events and use them to identify optimum design conditions to minimize such probabilities.

This research paper addresses the ground vehicle reliability prediction process based on a new integrated reliability prediction framework. The integrated stochastic framework combines the computational physics-based predictions with experimental testing information for assessing vehicle reliability. The integrated reliability prediction approach incorporates the following computational steps: i) simulation of stochastic operational environment, ii) vehicle multi-body dynamics analysis, iii) stress prediction in subsystems and components, iv) stochastic progressive damage analysis, and v) component life prediction, including the effects of maintenance and, finally, iv) reliability prediction at component and system level. To solve efficiently and accurately the challenges coming from large-size computational mechanics models and high-dimensional stochastic spaces, a HPC simulation-based approach to the reliability problem was implemented.

Reliability is an important engineering requirement for consistently delivering acceptable product performance through time. It also affects the scheduling for preventive maintenance. Reliability usually degrades with time increasing therefore, the lifecycle cost due to more frequent failures which result in increased warranty costs, costly repairs and loss of market share. In a lifecycle cost based design, we must account for product quality and preventive maintenance using time-dependent reliability. Quality is a measure of our confidence that the product conforms to specifications as it leaves the factory. For a repairable system, preventive maintenance is scheduled to avoid failures, unnecessary production loss and safety violations. This article proposes a methodology to obtain the optimal scheduling for preventive maintenance using time-dependent reliability principles.

This paper considers optimal power management during the establishment of an expeditionary outpost using battery and vehicle assets for electrical generation. The first step in creating a new outpost is implementing the physical protection and barrier system. Afterwards, facilities that provide communications, fires, meals, and moral boosts are implemented that steadily increase the electrical load while dynamic events, such as patrols, can cause abrupt changes in the electrical load profile. Being able to create a fully functioning outpost within 72 hours is a typical objective where the electrical power generation starts with batteries, transitions to gasoline generators and is eventually replaced by diesel generators as the outpost matures. Vehicles with power export capability are an attractive supplement to this electrical power evolution since they are usually on site, would reduce the amount of material for outpost creation, and provide a modular approach to outpost build-up.

Vehicles with power exporting capability are microgrids since they possess electrical power generation, onboard loads, energy storage, and the ability to interconnect. The unique load and silent watch requirements of some military vehicles make them particularly well-suited to augment stationary power grids to increase power resiliency and capability. Connecting multiple vehicles in a peer-to-peer arrangement or to a stationary grid requires scalable power management strategies to accommodate the possibly large numbers of assets. This paper describes a military ground vehicle power management scheme for vehicle-to-grid applications. The particular focus is overall fuel consumption reduction of the mixed asset inventory of military vehicles with diesel generators typically used in small unit outposts.

The reliability theory of repairable systems is vastly different from that of non-repairable systems. The authors have recently proposed a ‘decision-based’ framework to design and maintain repairable systems for optimal performance and reliability using a set of metrics such as minimum failure free period, number of failures in planning horizon (lifecycle), and cost. The optimal solution includes the initial design, the system maintenance throughout the planning horizon, and the protocol to operate the system. In this work, we extend this idea by incorporating flexibility and demonstrate our approach using a smart charging electric microgrid architecture. The flexibility is realized by allowing the architecture to change with time. Our approach “learns” the working characteristics of the microgrid. We use actual load and supply data over a short time to quantify the load and supply random processes and also establish the correlation between them.

The fuel injection pressure and the swirl motion have a great impact on combustion in small bore HSDI diesel engines running on the conventional or advanced combustion concepts. This paper examines the effects of injection pressure and the swirl motion on engine-out emissions over a wide range of EGR rates. Experiments were conducted on a single cylinder, 4-valve, direct injection diesel engine equipped with a common rail injection system. The pressures and temperatures in the inlet and exhaust surge tanks were adjusted to simulate turbocharged engine conditions. The load and speed of the engine were typical to highway cruising operation of a light duty vehicle. The experiments covered a wide range of injection pressures, swirl ratios and injection timings. Engine-out emission measurements included hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, smoke (in Bosch Smoke Units, BSU) and NOx.

For existing fleets such as the U.S. military ground vehicle fleet, there are few ways to reduce vehicle fuel consumption that don’t involve expensive retrofitting. Replacing standard lubricants with those that can achieve higher vehicle efficiencies is one practical and inexpensive way to improve fleet fuel efficiency. In an effort to identify axle gear lubricants that can reduce the fuel consumption of its fleet, the U.S. Army is developing a stationary axle efficiency test stand and procedure. In order to develop this capability, on-track vehicle fuel consumption testing was completed using light, medium, and heavy tactical wheeled vehicles following a modified SAE J1321 type test procedure. Tested lubricants included a baseline SAE 80W-90, a fuel efficient SAE 75W-90, and a fuel efficient SAE 75W-140. Vehicle testing resulted in reductions in fuel consumption of up to 2%.

Military vehicles are typically armored, hence the open surface area for heat rejection is limited. Hence, the cooling parasitic load for a given heat rejection can be considerably higher and important to consider upfront in the system design. Since PEMFCs operate at low temp, the required cooling flow is larger to account for the smaller delta temperature to the air. This research aims to address the combined problem of optimal sizing of the lithium ion battery and PEM Fuel Cell stack along with development of the scalable power split strategy for small a PackBot robot. We will apply scalable physics-based models of the fuel cell stack and balance of plant that includes a realistic and scalable parasitic load from cooling integrated with existing scalable models of the lithium ion battery. This model allows the combined optimization that captures the dominant trends relevant to component sizing and system performance.

Using the total probability theorem, we propose a method to calculate the failure rate of a linear vibratory system with random parameters excited by stationary Gaussian processes. The response of such a system is non-stationary because of the randomness of the input parameters. A space-filling design, such as optimal symmetric Latin hypercube sampling or maximin, is first used to sample the input parameter space. For each design point, the output process is stationary and Gaussian. We present two approaches to calculate the corresponding conditional probability of failure. A Kriging metamodel is then created between the input parameters and the output conditional probabilities allowing us to estimate the conditional probabilities for any set of input parameters. The total probability theorem is finally applied to calculate the time-dependent probability of failure and the failure rate of the dynamic system. The proposed method is demonstrated using a vibratory system.

Assessing the dynamic performance of multilayer plates subjected to impulsive loading is of interest for identifying configurations that either absorb energy or transmit the energy in the transverse directions, thereby mitigating the through-thickness energy propagation. A reduced-order modeling approach is presented in this paper for rapidly evaluating the structural dynamic performance of various multilayer plate designs. The new approach is based on the reverberation matrix method (RMM) with the theory of generalized rays for fast analysis of the structural dynamic characteristics of multilayer plates. In the RMM model, the waves radiated from the dynamic load are reflected and refracted at each interface between layers, and the waves within each layer are transmitted with a phase lag. These two phenomena are represented by the global scattering matrix and the global phase matrix, respectively.

This paper outlines the process by which a current production commercial diesel engine was modified for high performance military use. Salient among the needs for military use are a compact package and high power output. The compact engine package was addressed by the selection of a base engine of relatively small displacement and slim inline configuration. The air system, fuel pump, and other ancillary components were re-packaged close to the engine. A high engine power output was achieved by turbocharging at the pressure ratios achievable by current production turbochargers, increased engine speed, and upgrades in the design of engine components. Close attention was paid to thermal and mechanical loading of all components of the engine. Most components in the engine were changed to accommodate these loadings and packaging needs.