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In the Big Data era, the capability in statistical and probabilistic data characterization, data pattern identification, data modeling and analysis is critical to understand the data, to find the trends in the data, and to make better use of the data. In this paper the fundamental probability concepts and several commonly used probabilistic distribution functions, such as the Weibull for spectrum events and the Pareto for extreme/rare events, are described first. An event quadrant is subsequently established based on the commonality/rarity and impact/effect of the probabilistic events. Level of measurement, which is the key for quantitative measurement of the data, is also discussed based on the framework of probability. The damage density function, which is a measure of the relative damage contribution of each constituent is proposed. The new measure demonstrates its capability in distinguishing between the extreme/rare events and the spectrum events.

Numerous test data have been generated in many testing institutions over the years and the historical information from previous similar designs and operating conditions can shed light on the current and future designs since they would share some common features when the changes are not drastic. To effectively utilize the historical information for current and future designs, two steps are necessary: (1) finding an approach to consistently correlate the test data; (2) utilizing Bayesian statistics, which can provide a rigorous mathematical tool for extracting useful information from the historical data. In this paper, a procedure for test sample size reduction is proposed based on historical fatigue S-N test data and Bayesian statistics. First, the statistical information is extracted from a large amount of fatigue test data collected over the years.

A modern definition of quality control and improvement is the reduction of variability in processes and products. The reduced variability can be directly translated into lower costs, better functions and fewer repairs. However, the final quality of processes and products is sometimes derived from other measured variables through some implicit or explicit functional relationships. Sometimes, a tiny uncertainty in a variable can produce a huge uncertainty in a derived quantity. Therefore, the propagation of uncertainty needs to be understood and the individual variables need to be well controlled. More importantly, the critical factors that affect quality the most should be identified and thoroughly investigated. Design of experiments and statistical control plays central roles in finding root cause of failure, reduction of variability and quality improvement.

Fatigue life assessment is an integral part of the durability and reliability evaluation process of vehicle exhaust components and systems. The probabilistic life assessment approaches, including analytical, experimental, and simulation, CAE implementation in particular, are attracting significant attentions in recent years. In this paper, the state-of-the-art probabilistic life assessment methods for vehicle exhausts under combined thermal and mechanical loadings are reviewed and investigated. The loading cases as experienced by the vehicle exhausts are first categorized into isothermal fatigue, anisothermal fatigue, and high-temperature thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) based on the failure mechanisms. Subsequently, the probabilistic life assessment procedures for each category are delineated, with emphasis on product validation.

Driven by diesel engine emission regulation, more emission aftertretment products have been under development by Tenneco to address the Particular Matter (PM) and NOx reduction needs. The T.R.U.E. (Thermal Regeneration Unit for Exhaust) Clean active thermal management system is one of the examples to reduce PM. The system is designed to increase exhaust temperatures for DPF (Diesel Particulate Filter) regeneration. This product is exposed to high temperature and high oxidation. Therefore, thermal fatigue, creep, oxidation and the interaction become critical mechanism to be considered for its durability. One of the key challenges to validate this product is to find a way of accelerated testing for thermal, creep, and oxidation as well as for vibration. In this paper, accelerated durability test strategy for high temperature device like T.R.U.E Clean is addressed.

A statistic fatigue life assessment procedure is presented in this paper for estimating fatigue damage under stationary Gaussian multi-axial loadings with narrow-band frequency. The fatigue damage is determined by using the Miner-Palmgren rule in connection with a recently developed path-length based multi-axial cycle counting and fatigue life assessment method. In this procedure, the path length is determined by averaging sinusoidal waves with uniformly distributed phase angles while the cycles are estimated from the observation of peak counting results of stress components. Numerically simulated random loading paths with different degrees of non-proportionality are used here to compare the proposed statistical method with its time domain counterpart. Possible further improvement in this research direction is also indicated.

Fatigue, creep, oxidation, or their combinations have long been recognized as the principal failure mechanisms in many high-temperature applications such as exhaust manifolds and thermal regeneration units used in commercial vehicle aftertreatment systems. Depending on the specific materials, loading, and temperature levels, the role of each damage mechanism may change significantly, ranging from independent development to competing and combined creep-fatigue, fatigue-oxidation, creep-fatigue-oxidation. Several multiple failure mechanisms based material damage models have been developed, and products to resist these failure mechanisms have been designed and produced. However, one of the key challenges posed to design engineers is to find a way to accelerate the durability and reliability tests of auto exhaust in component and system levels and to validate the product design within development cycle to satisfy customer and market's requirements.

Structural stress methods are now widely used in fatigue life assessment of welded structures and structures with stress concentrations. The structural stress concept is based on the assumption of a global stress distribution at critical locations such as weld toes or weld throats, and there are several variants of structural stress approaches available. In this paper, the linear traction stress approach, a nodal force based structural stress approach, is reviewed first. The linear traction stress approach offers a robust procedure for extracting linear traction stress components by post-processing the finite element analysis results at any given hypothetical crack location of interest. Pertinent concepts such as mesh-insensitivity, master S-N curve, fatigue crack initiation and growth mechanisms are also discussed.

Fatigue testing and related fatigue life assessment are essential parts of the design and validation processes of vehicle components and systems. Fatigue bench test is one of the most important testing methods for durability and reliability assessment, and its primary function is to construct design curves based on a certain amount of repeated tests, with which recommendations on product design can be advised. How to increase the accuracy of predictions from test results, the associated life assessment, and to reduce the cost through reducing test sample size is an active and continuous effort. In this paper the current engineering practices on constructing design curves for fatigue test data are reviewed first.

Vehicle exhaust components and systems under fatigue loading often show multiple failure modes, which should be treated, at least theoretically, with rigorous advanced bi-modal and multi-modal statistical theories and approaches. These advanced methods are usually applied to mission-critical engineering applications such as nuclear and aerospace, in which large amounts of test data are often available. In the automotive industry, however, the sample size adopted in the product validation is usually small, thus the bi-modal and multi-modal phenomena cannot be distinguished with certainty.

Durability and reliability performance is one of the most important concerns of a recently developed Thermal Regeneration Unit for Exhaust (T.R.U.E-Clean®) for exhaust emission control. Like other ground vehicle systems, the T.R.U.E-Clean® system experiences cyclic loadings due to road vibrations leading to fatigue failure over time. Creep and oxidation cause damage at high temperature conditions which further shortens the life of the system and makes fatigue life assessment even more complex. Great efforts have been made to develop the ability to accurately and quickly assess the durability/reliability of the system in the early development stage. However, reliable and validated simplified engineering methods with rigorous mathematical and physical bases are still urgently needed to accurately manage the margin of safety and decrease the cost, whereas iterative testing is expensive and time consuming.

Durability/reliability design of products, such as auto exhaust systems, is essentially based on the observation of test data and the accurate interpretation of these data. Therefore, test planning and related data analysis are critical to successful engineering designs. To facilitate engineering applications, testing and data analysis methods have been standardized over the last decades by several standard bodies such as the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM). However, over the last few years, several effective testing and data analysis methods have been developed, and the existing standard procedures need to be updated to incorporate the new observations, knowledge, and consensus. In this paper, the common practices and the standard test planning and data analysis procedures are reviewed first. Subsequently, the recent development in accelerated testing, equilibrium based data fitting, design curve construction, and Bayesian statistical data analysis is presented.

This paper reviews the correlation concepts and tools available, with the emphasis on their historical origins, mathematical properties and applications. Two of the most commonly used statistical correlation indicators, i.e., modal assurance criterion (MAC) for structural deformation pattern identification/correlation and the coefficient of determination (R2) for data correlation are investigated. The mathematical structure of R2 is critically examined, and the physical meanings and their implications are discussed. Based on the insights gained from these analyses, a data scatter measure and a dependency measure are proposed. The applications of the measures for both linear and nonlinear data are also discussed. Finally, several worked examples in vehicle dynamics analysis and statistical data analyses are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of these concepts.

Corrosion resistance is an extremely important technical issue for long-term durability and reliability performance of exhaust components and systems. Failure mechanisms, such as corrosion, fatigue, corrosion-fatigue and stress corrosion cracking, have long been recognized as the principal degradation and failure mechanisms of vehicle components and systems under combined mechanical and corrosive environmental conditions. The combination of fluid flow, introduced by components such as advanced injectors, and corrosive environment leads to corrosion-erosion failure mechanism. These failure mechanisms are strongly material, environment, and loading dependent. How to characterize, screen, rank and select the materials in corrosion resistance is a big challenge posed to materials scientists and engineers. In this paper, the common corrosion related failure mechanisms appearing in auto exhaust systems are reviewed first.

There is a broad range of material choices for on-road and off-road exhaust systems. The final selection of the materials depends on the balance of engineering performance of the materials and the cost. Thermal-cycling resistance of exhaust materials is an extremely important criterion for the long-term durability and reliability performance of very high temperature exhaust components and systems. To optimize the thermal-cycling resistance and cost of those materials, a selection matrix must be established. Several material evaluation and selection matrices are already available, however, these are not sufficient to meet the industry needs. The current procedure of material selection is essentially based on the trial-and-error approach, which is not efficient in the current market environment. In this paper, a general rational approach for thermal-cycling resistance characterization and ranking is demonstrated.

In product design and development stage, validation assessment methods that can provide very high reliability and confidence levels are becoming highly demanded. High reliability and confidence can generally be achieved and demonstrated by conducting a large number of tests with the traditional approaches. However, budget constraints, test timing, and many other factors significantly limit test sample sizes. How to achieve high reliability and confidence levels with limited sample sizes is of significant importance in engineering applications. In this paper, such approaches are developed for two fundamental and widely used methods, i.e. the test-to-failure method and the Binomial test method. The concept of RxxCyy (e.g. R90C90 indicates 90% in reliability and 90% in confidence) is used as a criterion to measure the reliability and confidence in both the test-to-failure and the Binomial test methods.

The approaches of obtaining both fatigue strength distribution and fatigue life distribution for a given set of fatigue S-N data are reviewed in this paper. A new fatigue S-N curve transformation technique, which is based on the fundamental statistics definition and some reasonable assumptions, is specifically developed in this paper to transform a fatigue life distribution to a fatigue strength distribution. The procedures of applying the technique to multiple-stress level, two-stress level, and one-stress level fatigue S-N data are presented.