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Reliability is an important engineering requirement for consistently delivering acceptable product performance through time. As time progresses, the product may fail due to time-dependent operating conditions and material properties, component degradation, etc. The reliability degradation with time may increase the lifecycle cost due to potential warranty costs, repairs and loss of market share. Reliability is the probability that the system will perform its intended function successfully for a specified time interval. In this work, we consider the first-passage reliability which accounts for the first time failure of non-repairable systems. Methods are available in the literature, which provide an upper bound to the true reliability which may overestimate the true value considerably. This paper proposes a methodology to calculate the cumulative probability of failure (probability of first passage or upcrossing) of a dynamic system, driven by an ergodic input random process.

An efficient approach for series system reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) is presented. The key idea is to apportion optimally the system reliability among the failure modes by considering the target values of the failure probabilities of the modes as design variables. Critical failure modes that contribute the most to the overall system reliability are identified. This paper proposes a computationally efficient, system RBDO approach using a single-loop method where the searches for the optimum design and for the most probable failure points proceed simultaneously. Specifically, at each iteration the optimizer uses approximated most probable failure points from the previous iteration to search for the optimum. A second-order Ditlevsen upper bound is used for the joint failure probability of failure modes. Also, an easy to implement active strategy set is employed to improve algorithmic stability.

A comprehensive formulation is presented for the dynamics of a rotating flexible crankshaft coupled with the dynamics of an engine block through a finite difference elastohydrodynamic main bearing lubrication algorithm. The coupling is based on detailed equilibrium conditions at the bearings. The component mode synthesis is employed for modeling the crankshaft and block dynamic behavior. A specialized algorithm for coupling the rigid and flexible body dynamics of the crankshaft within the framework of the component mode synthesis has been developed. A finite difference lubrication algorithm is used for computing the oil film elastohydrodynamic characteristics. A computationally accurate and efficient mapping algorithm has been developed for transferring information between a high - density computational grid for the elastohydrodynamic bearing solver and a low - density structural grid utilized in computing the crankshaft and block structural dynamic response.

An efficient simulation-based method is proposed for the reliability analysis of a vehicle body-door subsystem with respect to an important quality issue -- wind noise. A nonlinear seal model is constructed for the automotive wind noise problem and the limit state function is evaluated using finite element analysis. Existing analytical as well as simulation-based methods are used to solve this problem. A multi-modal adaptive importance sampling method is then developed for reliability analysis at system level. It is demonstrated through this industrial application problem that the multi-modal adaptive importance sampling method is superior to existing methods in terms of efficiency and accuracy. The method can easily handle implicit limit-state functions, with variables of any statistical distributions.

The objective of this paper is to assess the effect of snow density on tire-snow interaction in the presence of uncertainty. The snow-depth dependent finite element analysis (FEA) and semi-analytical models we have developed recently can predict tire-snow interfacial forces at a given density under combined slip conditions. One drawback of the models is that they are only applicable for fresh, low-density snow due to the unavailability of a density-dependent snow model. In reality, the snow density on the ground can vary between that of fresh snow to heavily compacted snow that is similar to ice. Even for fresh snow on the ground, as a vehicle moves forward, the rear wheels experience higher snow densities than the front wheels. In addition, being a natural material, snow's physical properties vary significantly even for the same density.

The staircase fatigue test method is a well-established, but poorly understood probe for determining fatigue strength mean and standard deviation. The sensitivity of results to underlying distributions was studied using Monte Carlo simulation by repeatedly sampling known distributions of hypothetical fatigue strength data with the staircase test method. In this paper, the effects of the underlying distribution on staircase test results are presented with emphasis on original normal, lognormal, Weibull and bimodal data. The results indicate that the mean fatigue strength determined by the staircase testing protocol is largely unaffected by the underlying distribution, but the standard deviation is not. Suggestions for conducting staircase tests are provided.

Fatigue strength mean and standard deviation may be estimated by the Probit and 2-Point test methods. In this paper, methodologies for conducting the tests are developed and results from Monte Carlo simulation are presented. The results are compared with those from concurrent testing with the staircase method. While the Probit and 2-Point methods are intuitively attractive, their results are significantly different from those from the staircase method. The latter remains the best of the three.

Probabilistic studies can be prohibitively expensive because they require repeated finite element analyses of large models. Re-analysis methods have been proposed with the premise to estimate accurately the dynamic response of a structure after a baseline design has been modified, without recalculating the new response. Although these methods increase computational efficiency, they are still not efficient enough for probabilistic analysis of large-scale dynamic systems with low failure probabilities (less or equal to 10-3). This paper presents a methodology that uses deterministic and probabilistic re-analysis methods to generate sample points of the response. Subsequently, tail modeling is used to estimate the right tail of the response PDF and the probability of failure a highly reliable system. The methodology is demonstrated on probabilistic vibration analysis of a realistic vehicle FE model.

A vehicle drivetrain is designed to meet specific vehicle performance criteria which usually involve trade-offs among conflicting performance measures. This paper describes a methodology to optimize the drivetrain design including the axle ratio, transmission shift points and transmission shift ratios considering uncertainty. A complete vehicle dynamic model is developed using the bond graph method. The model includes the vehicle, engine, transmission, torque converter, driveline, and transmission controller. An equivalent MATLAB Simulink model performs the nonlinear dynamic analysis. In order to reduce the computational effort, a time-dependent metamodel is developed based on principal component analysis using singular value decomposition. The optimization is performed using both the Simulink vehicle dynamic model and the metamodel. A deterministic optimization first determines the optimum design in terms of fuel economy, without considering variations or uncertainties.

An accurate and efficient Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method is developed in this paper for limit state-based reliability analysis, especially at system levels, by using a response surface approximation of the failure indicator function. The Moving Least Squares (MLS) method is used to construct the response surface of the indicator function, along with an Optimum Symmetric Latin Hypercube (OSLH) as the sampling technique. Similar to MCS, the proposed method can easily handle implicit, highly nonlinear limit-state functions, with variables of any statistical distributions and correlations. However, the efficiency of MCS can be greatly improved. The method appears to be particularly efficient for multiple limit state and multiple design point problem. A mathematical example and a practical example are used to highlight the superior accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method over traditional reliability methods.

There are two sorts of uncertainty inherent in engineering design, the random and the epistemic. Random, or stochastic, uncertainty deals with the randomness or predictability of an event. It is well understood, easily modeled using classical probability, and ideal for such uncertainties as variations in manufacturing processes or material properties. Epistemic uncertainty deals with our lack of knowledge, our lack of information, and our own and others' subjectivity concerning design parameters. Epistemic uncertainty plays a particularly important role in the early stages of engineering design, when a lack of information about nominal values of parameters is much more important than potential variations in those parameters. Design reuse, or the design of product platforms, is an example in which epistemic uncertainty can play a crucial role in early design.

An approach for Probabilistic Reanalysis (PRA) of a system is presented. PRA calculates very efficiently the system reliability or the average value of an attribute of a design for many probability distributions of the input variables, by performing a single Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, PRA calculates the sensitivity derivatives of the reliability to the parameters of the probability distributions. The approach is useful for analysis problems where reliability bounds need to be calculated because the probability distribution of the input variables is uncertain or for design problems where the design variables are random. The accuracy and efficiency of PRA is demonstrated on vibration analysis of a car and on system reliability-based optimization (RBDO) of an internal combustion engine.

This paper presents the development of surrogate models (metamodels) for evaluating the bearing performance in an internal combustion engine. The metamodels are employed for performing probabilistic analyses for the engine bearings. The metamodels are developed based on results from a simulation solver computed at a limited number of sample points, which sample the design space. An integrated system-level engine simulation model, consisting of a flexible crankshaft dynamics model and a flexible engine block model connected by a detailed hydrodynamic lubrication model, is employed in this paper for generating information necessary to construct the metamodels. An optimal symmetric latin hypercube algorithm is utilized for identifying the sampling points based on the number and the range of the variables that are considered to vary in the design space.

This paper presents the development of surrogate models (metamodels) for evaluating the bearing performance in an internal combustion engine without performing time consuming analyses. The metamodels are developed based on results from actual simulation solvers computed at a limited number of sample points, which sample the design space. A finite difference bearing solver is employed in this paper for generating information necessary to construct the metamodels. An optimal symmetric Latin hypercube algorithm is utilized for identifying the sampling points based on the number and the range of the variables that are considered to vary in the design space. The development of the metamodels is validated by comparing results from the metamodels with results from the actual bearing performance solver over a large number of evaluation points. Once the metamodels are established they are employed for performing probabilistic analyses.

High-fidelity finite element (FE) tire-snow interaction models have the advantage of better understanding the physics of the tire-snow system. They can be used to develop semi-analytical models for vehicle design as well as to design and interpret field test results. For off-terrain conditions, there is a high level of uncertainties inherent in the system. The FE models are computationally intensive even when uncertainties of the system are not taken into account. On the other hand, field tests of tire-snow interaction are very costly. In this paper, dynamic metamodels are established to interpret interaction forces from FE simulation and to predict those forces by using part of the FE data as training data and part as validation data. Two metamodels are built based upon the Krieging principle: one has principal component analysis (PCA) taken into account and the other does not.

The door closing effort is a quality issue concerning both automobile designers and customers. This paper describes an Excel based mathematical model for predicting the side door closing effort in terms of the required minimum energy or velocity, to close the door from a small open position when the check-link ceases to function. A simplified but comprehensive model is developed which includes the cabin pressure (air bind), seal compression, door weight, latch effort, and hinge friction effects. The flexibility of the door and car body is ignored. Because the model simplification introduces errors, we calibrate it using measured data. Calibration is also necessary because some input parameters are difficult to obtain directly. In this work, we provide the option to calibrate the hinge model, the latch model, the seal compression model, and the air bind model. The door weight effect is geometrically exact, and does not need calibration.

An analytical method is presented in this paper for simulating piston secondary dynamics and piston-bore contact for an asymmetric half piston model including elastohydrodynamic (EHD) lubrication at the bore-skirt interface. A piston EHD analysis is used based on a finite-difference formulation. The oil film is discretized using a two-dimensional mesh. For improved computational efficiency without loss of accuracy, the Reynolds’ equation is solved using a perturbation approach which utilizes an “influence zone” concept, and a successive over-relaxation solver. The analysis includes several important physical attributes such as bore distortion effects due to mechanical and thermal deformation, inertia loading and piston barrelity and ovality. A Newmark-Beta time integration scheme combined with a Newton-Raphson linearization, calculates the piston secondary motion.

Piston design is a challenging engineering problem which involves complex physics and requires satisfying multiple performance objectives. Uncertainty in piston operating conditions and variability in piston design variables are inevitable and must be accounted for. The piston assembly can be a major source of engine mechanical friction and cold start noise, if not designed properly. In this paper, an analytical piston model is used in a deterministic and probabilistic (reliability-based) multi-objective design optimization process to obtain an optimal piston design. The model predicts piston performance in terms of scuffing, friction and noise, In order to keep the computational cost low, efficient and accurate metamodels of the piston performance metrics are used. The Pareto set of all optimal solutions is calculated allowing the designer to choose the “best” solution according to trade-offs among the multiple objectives.

The cathode gas diffusion layer (GDL) is an important component of polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) fuel cell. Its design parameters, including thickness, porosity and permeability, significantly affect the reactant transport and water management, thus impacting the fuel cell performance. This paper presents an optimization study of the GDL design parameters with the objective of maximizing the current density under a given voltage. A two-dimensional single-phase PEM fuel cell model is used. A multivariable optimization problem is formed to maximize the current density at the cathode under a given electrode voltage with respect to the GDL parameters. In order to reduce the computational effort and find the global optimum among the potential multiple optima, a global metamodel of the actual CFD-based fuel cell simulation, is adaptively generated using radial basis function approximations.

Quality and performance are two important customer requirements in vehicle design. Driveline clunk negatively affects the perceived quality and must be therefore, minimized. This is usually achieved using engine torque management, which is part of engine calibration. During a tip-in event, the engine torque rate of rise is limited until all the driveline lash is taken up. However, the engine torque rise, and its rate can negatively affect the vehicle throttle response. Therefore, the engine torque management must be balanced against throttle response. In practice, the engine torque rate of rise is calibrated manually. This paper describes a methodology for calibrating the engine torque in order to minimize the clunk disturbance, while still meeting throttle response constraints. A set of predetermined engine torque profiles are calibrated in a vehicle and the transmission turbine speed is measured for each profile. The latter is used to quantify the clunk disturbance.