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This paper presents the results of Argonne National Laboratory's assessment of the fuel-cycle energy and emissions impacts of 13 combinations of fuels and propulsion systems that are potential candidates for light-duty vehicles with tripled fuel economy (3X vehicles). These vehicles are being developed by the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV). Eleven fuels were considered: reformulated gasoline (RFG), reformulated diesel (RFD), methanol, ethanol, dimethyl ether, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), compressed natural gas (CNG), liquefied natural gas (LNG), biodiesel, Fischer-Tropsch diesel and hydrogen. RFG, methanol, ethanol, LPG, CNG and LNG were assumed to be burned in spark-ignition, direct-injection (SIDI) engines. RFD, Fischer-Tropsch diesel, biodiesel and dimethyl ether were assumed to be burned in compression-ignition, direct-injection (CIDI) engines. Hydrogen, RFG and methanol were assumed to be used in fuel-cell vehicles.

A two-stage Delphi study was conducted to collect information that would enable a technical and economic assessment of electric (EV) and hybrid electric (HEV) vehicles. The first-stage worldwide survey was completed in fall 1994 while the second-stage was completed by summer 1995. The paper reports results from the second round of the survey and the major differences between the two rounds. This second-stage international survey obtained information from 93 expert respondents from the automotive technology field. The second stage response provided the following key results. EVs will penetrate the market first followed by internal combustion engine powered HEVs while gas turbine and fuel cell powered HEVs will not have any significant penetration until after 2020. By 2020 EVs and internal combustion engine powered HEVs are projected to have approximately a 15% share of the new vehicle market.