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This paper quantifies the potential of electric propulsion systems to reduce petroleum use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the 2030 U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet. The propulsion systems under consideration include gasoline hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs), fuel-cell hybrid vehicles (FCVs), and battery-electric vehicles (BEVs). The performance and cost of key enabling technologies were extrapolated over a 25-30 year time horizon. These results were integrated with software simulations to model vehicle performance and tank-to-wheel energy consumption. Well-to-wheel energy and GHG emissions of future vehicle technologies were estimated by integrating the vehicle technology evaluation with assessments of different fuel pathways. The results show that, if vehicle size and performance remain constant at present-day levels, these electric propulsion systems can reduce or eliminate the transport sector's reliance on petroleum.

Advances in avionics and display technology are significantly changing the cockpit environment in current transport aircraft. The MIT Aeronautical Systems Lab (ASL) has developed a part-task flight simulator specifically to study the effects of these new technologies on flight crew situational awareness and performance. The simulator is based on a commercially-available graphics workstation, and can be rapidly reconfigured to meet the varying demands of experimental studies. The simulator has been successfully used to evaluate graphical microburst alerting displays, electronic instrument approach plates, terrain awareness and alerting displays, and ATC routing amendment delivery through digital datalinks.

Accurately predicting real-world vehicle energy consumption is essential for optimizing vehicle designs, enhancing energy efficiency, and developing effective energy management strategies. This paper presents a data-driven approach that utilizes machine learning techniques and a comprehensive dataset of vehicle parameters and environmental factors to create precise energy consumption prediction models. The methodology involves recording real-world vehicle data using data loggers to extract information from the CAN bus systems for ICE and hybrid electric, as well as hydrogen and battery fuel cell vehicles. Data cleaning and cycle-based analysis are employed to process the dataset for accurate energy consumption prediction. This includes cycle detection and analysis using methods from statistics and signal processing, and then pattern recognition based on these metrics.

Currently, states that are out of compliance with the National Ambient Air Quality Standards must, according to the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA), develop and implement control strategies that demonstrate specific degrees of reduction in emissions-with the degree of reduction depending upon the severity of the problem. One tool that has been developed to aid regulators in both deciding an appropriate course of action and to demonstrate the desired reductions in mobile emissions is EPA's Mobile 5a emission estimation model. In our study, Mobile 5a has been used to examine the effects of regulatory strategies, as applied to the Northeast United States, on vehicle emissions under worst-case ozone-forming conditions.

MIT Lincoln Laboratory is tasked by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration to investigate the use of the NEXRAD polarimetric radars* for the remote sensing of icing conditions hazardous to aircraft. A critical aspect of the investigation concerns validation that has relied upon commercial airline icing pilot reports and a dedicated campaign of in situ flights in winter storms. During the month of February in 2012 and 2013, the Convair-580 aircraft operated by the National Research Council of Canada was used for in situ validation of snowstorm characteristics under simultaneous observation by NEXRAD radars in Cleveland, Ohio and Buffalo, New York. The most anisotropic and easily distinguished winter targets to dual pol radar are ice crystals.

Rare earths are a group of elements whose availability has been of concern due to monopolistic supply conditions and environmentally unsustainable mining practices. To evaluate the risks of rare earths availability to automakers, a first step is to determine raw material content and value in vehicles. This task is challenging because rare earth elements are used in small quantities, in a large number of components, and by suppliers far upstream in the supply chain. For this work, data on rare earth content reported by vehicle parts suppliers was assessed to estimate the rare earth usage of a typical conventional gasoline engine midsize sedan and a full hybrid sedan. Parts were selected from a large set of reported parts to build a hypothetical typical mid-size sedan. Estimates of rare earth content for vehicles with alternative powertrain and battery technologies were made based on the available parts' data.

This paper describes a post-race analysis of team KOMMIT EVT’s electric motorcycle data collected during the 2016 Pikes Peak International Hill Climb (PPIHC). The motorcycle consumed approximately 4 kWh of battery energy with an average and maximum speed of 107 km/h and 149 km/h, respectively. It was the second fastest electric motorcycle with a finishing time of 11:10.480. Data was logged of the motorcycle’s speed, acceleration, motor speed, power, currents, voltages, temperatures, throttle position, GPS position, rider’s heart rate and the ambient environment (air temperature, pressure and humidity). The data was used to understand the following factors that may have prevented a faster time: physical fitness of the rider, thermal limits of the motor and controller, available battery energy and the sprocket ratio between the motor and rear wheel.

Two critical milestones that must be achieved during concept design are 1) definition of a product architecture that meets performance, producibility, and strategic objectives, and 2) estimation of the integration risk in each candidate concept. This paper addresses these issues by describing the role played by the producibility members of an Integrated Product Team (IPT) during concept design. Our focus is on the execution of the what we call the “chain method”, which illustrates the structure of function delivery in a concept in a simple pictorial way and helps the IPT to understand the advantages or disadvantages of using a modular or an integral product architecture. The producibility members play a central role in capturing and evaluating the chains for different candidate concepts and decompositions.

This paper assesses the potential improvement of automotive powertrain technologies 25 years into the future. The powertrain types assessed include naturally-aspirated gasoline engines, turbocharged gasoline engines, diesel engines, gasoline-electric hybrids, and various advanced transmissions. Advancements in aerodynamics, vehicle weight reduction and tire rolling friction are also taken into account. The objective of the comparison is the potential of anticipated improvements in these powertrain technologies for reducing petroleum consumption and greenhouse gas emissions at the same level of performance as current vehicles in the U.S.A. The fuel consumption and performance of future vehicles was estimated using a combination of scaling laws and detailed vehicle simulations. The results indicate that there is significant potential for reduction of fuel consumption for all the powertrains examined.

Enhanced information management techniques made available through emerging Information Technology platforms hold a promise of providing significant improvements in both the effectiveness and efficiency of developing complex products. Determining actual management implementations that deliver on this promise has often proven elusive. Work in conjunction with the Lean Aircraft Initiative at MIT has revealed a straight forward use of Information Technology that portends significant cost reductions. By integrating previously separate types of data involved in the process of product development, engineers and designers can make decisions that will significantly reduce ultimate costs. Since the results presented are not specific to particular technologies or manufacturing processes, the conclusions are broadly applicable.

Battery packs for Hybrids, Plug-in Hybrids, and Electric Vehicles are assembled from a system of modules (sheets) with a tight sheet metal casing around them. Each module consists of an array of individual cells which vary in the composition of electrodes and separator from one manufacturer to another. In this paper a general procedure is outlined on the development of a constitutive and computational model of a cylindrical cell. Particular emphasis is placed on correct prediction of initiation and propagation of a tearing fracture of the steel can. The computational model correctly predicts rupture of the steel can which could release aggressive chemicals, fumes, or spread the ignited fire to the neighboring cells. The initiation site of skin fracture depends on many factors such as the ductility of the casing material, constitutive behavior of the system of electrodes, and type of loading.

Concept of a new decoupled cylinder liner design for internal combustion (IC) engines is presented from the framework of axiomatic design to improve friction and wear characteristics. In the current design, the piston rings fail to satisfy their functional requirements at the two dead centers of the piston stroke where lubrication is poor. It is proposed that by using undulated cylindrical surfaces selectively along the cylinder liner, much of the existing friction and wear problems of IC engines may be solved. The main idea behind undulated surface is to trap wear particles at the piston-cylinder interface in order to minimize plowing, and thus maintain low friction even in areas where lubrication fails to be hydrodynamic. In dry sliding tests using a modified engine motored at low speeds, undulated cylinders operated for significantly longer time than smooth cylinders without catastrophic increase in friction.

The fuel energy consumption of subsonic air transportation is examined. The focus is on identification and quantification of fundamental engineering design tradeoffs which drive the design of subsonic tube and wing transport aircraft. The sensitivities of energy efficiency to recent and forecast technology developments are also examined.

The transportation sector in the United States is a major contributor to global energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission. To assess the future potentials of different technologies in addressing these two issues, we used a family of simulation programs to predict fuel consumption for passenger cars in 2020. The selected technology combinations that have good market potential and could be in mass production include: advanced gasoline and diesel internal combustion engine vehicles with automatically-shifting clutched transmissions, gasoline, diesel, and compressed natural gas hybrid electric vehicles with continuously variable transmissions, direct hydrogen, gasoline and methanol reformer fuel cell hybrid electric vehicles with direct ratio drive, and battery electric vehicle with direct ratio drive.

A human-centered systems analysis was applied to the adverse aircraft weather encounter problem in order to identify desirable functions of weather and icing information. The importance of contingency planning was identified as emerging from a system safety design methodology as well as from results of other aviation decision-making studies. The relationship between contingency planning support and information on regions clear of adverse weather was investigated in a scenario-based analysis. A rapid prototype example of the key elements in the depiction of icing conditions was developed in a case study, and the implications for the components of the icing information system were articulated.

Future planetary extravehicular activities (EVAs) will go beyond what was experienced during Apollo. As mission duration becomes longer, inevitably, the astronauts on the surface of the Moon and Mars will actively plan and re-plan their own sorties. To design robust decision support aids for these activities, we have to first characterize all the different types of excursions that are possible. This paper describes a framework that organizes parameters and constraints that define a single planetary EVA. We arrived at this framework through case studies: by reviewing the EVA lessons learned during Apollo, conducting an observational study of excursions in a Mars-analog environment, and applying part of the framework to a prototype path planner for human planetary exploration.

With the recent advancement in sensing and controller technologies architecture design of an autonomous driving system becomes an important issue. Researchers have been developing different sensors and data processing technologies to solve the issues associated with fast processing, diverse weather, reliability, long distance recognition performance, etc. Necessary considerations of diverse traffic situations and safety factors of autonomous driving have also increased the complexity of embedded software as well as architecture of autonomous driving. In these circumstances, there are almost countless numbers of possible architecture designs. However, these design considerations have significant impacts on cost, controllability, and system reliability. Thus, it is crucial for the designers to make a challenging and critical design decision under several uncertainties during the conceptual design phase.

Higher compression ratio and turbocharging, with engine downsizing can enable significant gains in fuel economy but require engine operating conditions that cause engine knock under high load. Engine knock can be avoided by supplying higher-octane fuel under such high load conditions. This study builds on previous MIT papers investigating Octane-On-Demand (OOD) to enable a higher efficiency, higher-boost higher compression-ratio engine. The high-octane fuel for OOD can be obtained through On-Board-Separation (OBS) of alcohol blended gasoline. Fuel from the primary fuel tank filled with commercially available gasoline that contains 10% by volume ethanol (E10) is separated by an organic membrane pervaporation process that produces a 30 to 90% ethanol fuel blend for use when high octane is needed. In addition to previous work, this paper combines modeling of the OBS system with passenger car and medium-duty truck fuel consumption and octane requirements for various driving cycles.

Future human space exploration includes returning to the Moon and continuing to Mars. Essential to these missions is each planetary extravehicular activity, or EVA, where astronauts and robotic agents will explore lunar and planetary surfaces. Real-time decision support systems will help these explorers in efficiently planning and re-planning under time pressure sorties. Information and functional requirements for such a system are recommended and are based on on-going human-computer collaboration research.