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This paper quantifies the potential of electric propulsion systems to reduce petroleum use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the 2030 U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet. The propulsion systems under consideration include gasoline hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs), fuel-cell hybrid vehicles (FCVs), and battery-electric vehicles (BEVs). The performance and cost of key enabling technologies were extrapolated over a 25-30 year time horizon. These results were integrated with software simulations to model vehicle performance and tank-to-wheel energy consumption. Well-to-wheel energy and GHG emissions of future vehicle technologies were estimated by integrating the vehicle technology evaluation with assessments of different fuel pathways. The results show that, if vehicle size and performance remain constant at present-day levels, these electric propulsion systems can reduce or eliminate the transport sector's reliance on petroleum.

Advances in avionics and display technology are significantly changing the cockpit environment in current transport aircraft. The MIT Aeronautical Systems Lab (ASL) has developed a part-task flight simulator specifically to study the effects of these new technologies on flight crew situational awareness and performance. The simulator is based on a commercially-available graphics workstation, and can be rapidly reconfigured to meet the varying demands of experimental studies. The simulator has been successfully used to evaluate graphical microburst alerting displays, electronic instrument approach plates, terrain awareness and alerting displays, and ATC routing amendment delivery through digital datalinks.

A model has been developed for estimating the oil vaporization rate from the cylinder liner of a reciprocating engine. The model uses input from an external cycle simulator and an external liner oil film thickness model. It allows for the change in oil composition and the change in oil film thickness due to vaporization. It also estimates how the passage of the compression and scraper rings combine with the vaporization to influence the steady-state composition of the oil layer in the upper ring pack. Computer model results are presented for a compression-ignition engine using a range of liner temperatures, several engine speeds, and two different oils. Vaporization is found to be highly dependent on liner temperature and steady-state oil composition. The steady-state oil composition near the top of the cylinder is found to be significantly different than the composition of the oil near the bottom of the cylinder.

A complete one-dimensional mixed lubrication model has been developed to predict oil film thickness and friction of the piston ring-pack. An average flow model and a roughness contact model are used to consider the effects of surface roughness on both hydrodynamic and boundary lubrication. Effects of shear-thinning and liner temperature on lubricant viscosity are included. An inlet condition is applied by considering the unsteady wetting location at the leading edge of the ring. A ‘film non-separation’ exit condition is proposed to replace Reynolds exit condition when the oil squeezing becomes dominant. Three lubrication modes are considered in the model, namely, pure hydrodynamic, mixed, and pure boundary lubrication. All of these considerations are crucial for studying the oil transport, asperity contact, and friction especially in the top dead center (TDC) region where the oil control ring cannot reach.

Accurately predicting real-world vehicle energy consumption is essential for optimizing vehicle designs, enhancing energy efficiency, and developing effective energy management strategies. This paper presents a data-driven approach that utilizes machine learning techniques and a comprehensive dataset of vehicle parameters and environmental factors to create precise energy consumption prediction models. The methodology involves recording real-world vehicle data using data loggers to extract information from the CAN bus systems for ICE and hybrid electric, as well as hydrogen and battery fuel cell vehicles. Data cleaning and cycle-based analysis are employed to process the dataset for accurate energy consumption prediction. This includes cycle detection and analysis using methods from statistics and signal processing, and then pattern recognition based on these metrics.

Currently, states that are out of compliance with the National Ambient Air Quality Standards must, according to the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA), develop and implement control strategies that demonstrate specific degrees of reduction in emissions-with the degree of reduction depending upon the severity of the problem. One tool that has been developed to aid regulators in both deciding an appropriate course of action and to demonstrate the desired reductions in mobile emissions is EPA's Mobile 5a emission estimation model. In our study, Mobile 5a has been used to examine the effects of regulatory strategies, as applied to the Northeast United States, on vehicle emissions under worst-case ozone-forming conditions.

MIT Lincoln Laboratory is tasked by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration to investigate the use of the NEXRAD polarimetric radars* for the remote sensing of icing conditions hazardous to aircraft. A critical aspect of the investigation concerns validation that has relied upon commercial airline icing pilot reports and a dedicated campaign of in situ flights in winter storms. During the month of February in 2012 and 2013, the Convair-580 aircraft operated by the National Research Council of Canada was used for in situ validation of snowstorm characteristics under simultaneous observation by NEXRAD radars in Cleveland, Ohio and Buffalo, New York. The most anisotropic and easily distinguished winter targets to dual pol radar are ice crystals.

Non-petroleum based liquid fuels are essential for reducing oil dependence and greenhouse gas generation. Increased substitution of alcohol fuel for petroleum based fuels could be achieved by 1) use in high efficiency spark ignition engines that are employed for heavy duty as well as light duty operation and 2) use of methanol as well as ethanol. Methanol is the liquid fuel that is most efficiently produced from thermo-chemical gasification of coal, natural gas, waste or biomass. Ethanol can also be produced by this process but at lower efficiency and higher cost. Coal derived methanol is in limited initial use as a transportation fuel in China. Methanol could potentially be produced from natural gas at an economically competitive fuel costs, and with essentially the same greenhouse gas impact as gasoline. Waste derived methanol could also be an affordable low carbon fuel.

Rare earths are a group of elements whose availability has been of concern due to monopolistic supply conditions and environmentally unsustainable mining practices. To evaluate the risks of rare earths availability to automakers, a first step is to determine raw material content and value in vehicles. This task is challenging because rare earth elements are used in small quantities, in a large number of components, and by suppliers far upstream in the supply chain. For this work, data on rare earth content reported by vehicle parts suppliers was assessed to estimate the rare earth usage of a typical conventional gasoline engine midsize sedan and a full hybrid sedan. Parts were selected from a large set of reported parts to build a hypothetical typical mid-size sedan. Estimates of rare earth content for vehicles with alternative powertrain and battery technologies were made based on the available parts' data.

To meet future particle mass and particle number standards, gasoline vehicles may require particle control, either by way of an exhaust gas filter and/or engine modifications. Soot levels for gasoline engines are much lower than diesel engines; however, non-combustible material (ash) will be collected that can potentially cause increased backpressure, reduced power, and lower fuel economy. The purpose of this work was to examine the ash loading of gasoline particle filters (GPFs) during rapid aging cycles and at real time low mileages, and compare the filter performances to both fresh and very high mileage filters. Current rapid aging cycles for gasoline exhaust systems are designed to degrade the three-way catalyst washcoat both hydrothermally and chemically to represent full useful life catalysts. The ash generated during rapid aging was low in quantity although similar in quality to real time ash. Filters were also examined after a low mileage break-in of approximately 3000 km.

This paper describes a post-race analysis of team KOMMIT EVT’s electric motorcycle data collected during the 2016 Pikes Peak International Hill Climb (PPIHC). The motorcycle consumed approximately 4 kWh of battery energy with an average and maximum speed of 107 km/h and 149 km/h, respectively. It was the second fastest electric motorcycle with a finishing time of 11:10.480. Data was logged of the motorcycle’s speed, acceleration, motor speed, power, currents, voltages, temperatures, throttle position, GPS position, rider’s heart rate and the ambient environment (air temperature, pressure and humidity). The data was used to understand the following factors that may have prevented a faster time: physical fitness of the rider, thermal limits of the motor and controller, available battery energy and the sprocket ratio between the motor and rear wheel.

While metal fiber filters have successfully shown a high degree of particle retention functionality for various sizes of diesel engines with a low pressure drop and a relatively high filtration efficiency, little is known about the effects of lubricant-derived ash on the fiber filter systems. Sintered metal fiber filters (SMF-DPF), when used downstream from a diesel engine, effectively trap and oxidize diesel particulate matter via an electrically heated regeneration process where a specific voltage and current are applied to the sintered alloy fibers. In this manner the filter media essentially acts as a resistive heater to generate temperatures high enough to oxidize the carbonaceous particulate matter, which is typically in excess of 600°C.

Ash, primarily derived from diesel engine lubricants, accumulates in diesel particulate filters directly affecting the filter's pressure drop sensitivity to soot accumulation, thus impacting regeneration frequency and fuel economy. After approximately 33,000 miles of equivalent on-road aging, ash comprises more than half of the material accumulated in a typical cordierite filter. Ash accumulation reduces the effective filtration area, resulting in higher local soot loads toward the front of the filter. At a typical ash cleaning interval of 150,000 miles, ash more than doubles the filter's pressure drop sensitivity to soot, in addition to raising the pressure drop level itself. In order to evaluate the effects of lubricant-derived ash on DPF pressure drop performance, a novel accelerated ash loading system was employed to generate the ash and load the DPFs under carefully-controlled exhaust conditions.

Two critical milestones that must be achieved during concept design are 1) definition of a product architecture that meets performance, producibility, and strategic objectives, and 2) estimation of the integration risk in each candidate concept. This paper addresses these issues by describing the role played by the producibility members of an Integrated Product Team (IPT) during concept design. Our focus is on the execution of the what we call the “chain method”, which illustrates the structure of function delivery in a concept in a simple pictorial way and helps the IPT to understand the advantages or disadvantages of using a modular or an integral product architecture. The producibility members play a central role in capturing and evaluating the chains for different candidate concepts and decompositions.

Ash accumulation in diesel particulate filters, mostly from essential lubricant additives, decreases the filter's soot storage capacity, adversely affects fuel economy, and negatively impacts the filter's service life. While the adverse effects of ash accumulation on DPF performance are well known, the underlying mechanisms controlling these effects are not. To address these issues, results of detailed measurements with specially formulated lubricants, correlating ash properties to individual lubricant additives and their effects on DPF pressure drop, are presented. Investigations using the specially-formulated lubricants showed ash consisting primarily of calcium sulfates to exhibit significantly increased flow resistance as opposed to ash primarily composed of zinc phosphates. Furthermore, ash accumulated along the filer walls was found to be packed approximately 25% denser than ash accumulated in the channel end-plugs.

This paper assesses the potential improvement of automotive powertrain technologies 25 years into the future. The powertrain types assessed include naturally-aspirated gasoline engines, turbocharged gasoline engines, diesel engines, gasoline-electric hybrids, and various advanced transmissions. Advancements in aerodynamics, vehicle weight reduction and tire rolling friction are also taken into account. The objective of the comparison is the potential of anticipated improvements in these powertrain technologies for reducing petroleum consumption and greenhouse gas emissions at the same level of performance as current vehicles in the U.S.A. The fuel consumption and performance of future vehicles was estimated using a combination of scaling laws and detailed vehicle simulations. The results indicate that there is significant potential for reduction of fuel consumption for all the powertrains examined.

Enhanced information management techniques made available through emerging Information Technology platforms hold a promise of providing significant improvements in both the effectiveness and efficiency of developing complex products. Determining actual management implementations that deliver on this promise has often proven elusive. Work in conjunction with the Lean Aircraft Initiative at MIT has revealed a straight forward use of Information Technology that portends significant cost reductions. By integrating previously separate types of data involved in the process of product development, engineers and designers can make decisions that will significantly reduce ultimate costs. Since the results presented are not specific to particular technologies or manufacturing processes, the conclusions are broadly applicable.

Battery packs for Hybrids, Plug-in Hybrids, and Electric Vehicles are assembled from a system of modules (sheets) with a tight sheet metal casing around them. Each module consists of an array of individual cells which vary in the composition of electrodes and separator from one manufacturer to another. In this paper a general procedure is outlined on the development of a constitutive and computational model of a cylindrical cell. Particular emphasis is placed on correct prediction of initiation and propagation of a tearing fracture of the steel can. The computational model correctly predicts rupture of the steel can which could release aggressive chemicals, fumes, or spread the ignited fire to the neighboring cells. The initiation site of skin fracture depends on many factors such as the ductility of the casing material, constitutive behavior of the system of electrodes, and type of loading.

Concept of a new decoupled cylinder liner design for internal combustion (IC) engines is presented from the framework of axiomatic design to improve friction and wear characteristics. In the current design, the piston rings fail to satisfy their functional requirements at the two dead centers of the piston stroke where lubrication is poor. It is proposed that by using undulated cylindrical surfaces selectively along the cylinder liner, much of the existing friction and wear problems of IC engines may be solved. The main idea behind undulated surface is to trap wear particles at the piston-cylinder interface in order to minimize plowing, and thus maintain low friction even in areas where lubrication fails to be hydrodynamic. In dry sliding tests using a modified engine motored at low speeds, undulated cylinders operated for significantly longer time than smooth cylinders without catastrophic increase in friction.

The fuel energy consumption of subsonic air transportation is examined. The focus is on identification and quantification of fundamental engineering design tradeoffs which drive the design of subsonic tube and wing transport aircraft. The sensitivities of energy efficiency to recent and forecast technology developments are also examined.