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Journal Article

Design under Uncertainty using a Combination of Evidence Theory and a Bayesian Approach

2008-04-14
2008-01-0377
Early in the engineering design cycle, it is difficult to quantify product reliability due to insufficient data or information to model uncertainties. Probability theory can not be therefore, used. Design decisions are usually based on fuzzy information which is imprecise and incomplete. Various design methods such as Possibility-Based Design Optimization (PBDO) and Evidence-Based Design Optimization (EBDO) have been developed to systematically treat design with non-probabilistic uncertainties. In practical engineering applications, information regarding the uncertain variables and parameters may exist in the form of sample points, and uncertainties with sufficient and insufficient information may exist simultaneously. Most of the existing optimal design methods under uncertainty can not handle this form of incomplete information. They have to either discard some valuable information or postulate the existence of additional information.
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