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Available methodologies for model bias identification are mainly regression-based approaches, such as Gaussian process, Bayesian inference-based models and so on. Accuracy and efficiency of these methodologies may degrade for characterizing the model bias when more system inputs are considered in the prediction model due to the curse of dimensionality for regression-based approaches. This paper proposes a copula-based approach for model bias identification without suffering the curse of dimensionality. The main idea is to build general statistical relationships between the model bias and the model prediction including all system inputs using copulas so that possible model bias distributions can be effectively identified at any new design configurations of the system. Two engineering case studies whose dimensionalities range from medium to high will be employed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the copula-based approach.

Developing a new technology requires decision-makers to understand the technology's implications on an organization's objectives, which depend on user needs targeted by the technology. If these needs are common between two organizations, collaboration could result in more efficient technology development. For hybrid truck design, both commercial manufacturers and the military have similar performance needs. As the new technology penetrates the truck market, the commercial enterprise must quantify how the hybrid's superior fuel efficiency will impact consumer purchasing and, thus, future enterprise profits. The Army is also interested in hybrid technology as it continues its transformation to a more fuel-efficient force. Despite having different objectives, maximizing profit and battlefield performance, respectively, the commercial enterprise and Army can take advantage of their mutual needs.

The pulleys employed in automotive accessory drive systems very often consist of a two piece assembly; a multitude of fastening techniques are used in completing the assembly. There are numerous assembly methods and a variety of distinct pulley configurations dictated by the various automobile manufacturers in accordance with individual accessory drive needs. An expert system is being developed to evaluate the merit of multiple assembly alternatives for a specific pulley application. The expert system provides a consistent evaluation tool for assembly alternatives, balancing the influence of product cost, strength and quality considerations. The knowledge-based system is implemented in an expert system shell called AGNESS (A Generalized Network-based Expert System Shell). The expert system judges the acceptability of various pulley assembly techniques, assigning a high “merit value” to the better designs and proportionately lower values to less desirable designs.

The reach capability of drivers is currently represented in vehicle design practice in two ways. The SAE Recommended Practice J287 presents maximum reach capability surfaces for selected percentiles of a generic driving population. Driver reach is also simulated using digital human figure models. In typical applications, a family of figure models that span a large range of the target driver population with respect to body dimensions is positioned within a digital mockup of the driver's workstation. The articulated segments of the figure model are exercised to simulate reaching motions and driver capabilities are calculated from the constraints of the kinematic model. Both of these current methods for representing driver reach are substantially limited. The J287 surfaces are not configurable for population characteristics, do not provide the user with the ability to adjust accommodation percentiles, and do not provide any guidance on the difficulty of reaches that are attainable.

The effect of skip-firing (which is often applied in optical engine work) on the available in-cylinder oxygen concentration was investigated with a laser-induced fluorescence imaging setup that combines the measurement of fluorescence signals from toluene and 3-pentanone to quantitatively determine the distribution of molecular oxygen. We describe in detail the image processing procedure for this measurement. The reduction of in-cylinder oxygen when switching from skip-fired to continuous-fired engine operation is measured and compared to traditional exhaust measurements.

A new approach to driver seat-position modeling is presented. The equations of the Seating Accommodation Model (SAM) separately predict parameters of the distributions of male and female fore/aft seat position in a given vehicle. These distributions are used together to predict specific percentiles of the combined male-and-female seat-position distribution. The effects of vehicle parameters-seat height, steering-wheel-to-accelerator pedal distance, seat-cushion angle, and transmission type-are reflected in the prediction of mean seat position. The mean and standard deviation of driver population stature are included in the prediction for the mean and standard deviation of the seat-position distribution, respectively. SAM represents a new, more flexible approach to predicting fore/aft seat-position distributions for any driver population in passenger vehicles. Model performance is good, even at percentiles in the tails of the distribution.

Thermal distortions of friction disks caused by frictional heating modify pressure distribution on friction surfaces. Pressure distribution, in turn, determines distribution of generated frictional heat. These interdependencies create a complex thermoelastic system that, under some conditions, may become unstable and may lead to severe pressure concentrations with very high local temperature and stress. The phenomenon is responsible for many common thermal failure modes of friction elements and is known as frictionally excited thermoelastic instability (TEI). In the paper, one of the cases of TEI is investigated theoretically and experimentally. The study involves a two-disk structure with one fiction disk and one matching steel disk that have one friction interface. An unsteady heat conduction problem and an elastic contact problem are modeled as axisymmetric ones and are solved using the finite element method.

Cost reduction, quality improvement, and regulatory compliance are well-recognized competitive issues. Companies must excel along each of these fronts while operating in an environment of rapid and multi-faceted change, limited financial and human capital, and increasing product development time pressure. In addition, consumers are demanding automobiles that provide greater performance, function, and comfort while emitting lower emissions, consuming fewer gallons of gasoline, injuring fewer humans, and requiring fewer dollars to build and purchase. A solution to these seemingly conflicting objectives is to take a systems view of the product and industry. This paper explores the material decision process so that manufacturers, component suppliers, and material providers may better understand the interlocking web of compromises that shape the pursuit of value-added alternatives and avoidance of unprofitable compromises.

The attractiveness of the hydraulic hybrid concept stems from the high power density and efficiency of the pump/motors and the accumulator. This is particularly advantageous in applications to heavy vehicles, as high mass translates into high rates of energy flows through the system. Using dry case hydraulic pumps further improves the energy conversion in the system, as they have 1-4% better efficiency than traditional wet-case pumps. However, evacuation of fluid from the case introduces air bubbles and it becomes imperative to address the deaeration problems. This research develops a bubble elimination efficiency testing apparatus (BEETA) to establish quantitative results characterizing bubble removal from hydraulic fluid in a cyclone deaeration device. The BEETA system mixes the oil and air according to predetermined ratio, passes the mixture through a cyclone deaeration device, and then measures the concentration of air in the exiting fluid.

Over half of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the United States come from the transportation and electricity generation sectors. To analyze the potential impact of cross-sector cooperation in reducing these emissions, we formulate a bi-level optimization model where the transportation sector can purchase renewable energy certificates (REC) from the electricity generation sector. These RECs are used to offset emissions from transportation in lieu of deploying high-cost fuel efficient technologies. The electricity generation sector creates RECs by producing additional energy from renewable sources. This additional renewable capacity is financed by the transportation sector and it does not impose additional cost on the electricity generation sector. Our results show that such a REC purchasing regime significantly reduces the cost to society of reducing GHG emissions. Additionally, our results indicate that a REC purchasing policy can create electricity beyond actual demand.

Open-Architecture Control Systems allow easy integration of control system that their elements supplied by multiple vendors. The driver behind open architecture is obtaining enhanced system performance at affordable cost. The University of Michigan started a project on open-architecture in 1988. This paper offers a short description of the project, and summarizes the impact of this new technology on the equipment supplier industry (control vendors and machine builders) and the end users of this technology.

The formation of NO was investigated in a spray-guided spark-ignition direct-injection gasoline engine. The influence of variations in intake air temperature and simulated exhaust gas recirculation was examined in an optical single-cylinder engine, fueled with iso-octane. Cycle-resolved simultaneous measurements of OH-chemiluminescence, NO laser induced fluorescence, and fast NO exhaust gas sampling allowed a detailed view of the formation process of NO in this engine. Overall, it was found that cycle-resolved information is needed to explain the differences found between operating conditions, since the initial high stratification of fuel leads to large spatial gradients in the NO concentration. Averaged in-cylinder NO distributions do not adequately reflect the formation process rather than show a smoothed distribution that may even be counter-intuitive based on averaged chemiluminescence data.

Existing methods for design optimization under uncertainty assume that a high level of information is available, typically in the form of data. In reality, however, insufficient data prevents correct inference of probability distributions, membership functions, or interval ranges. In this article we use an engine design example to show that optimal design decisions and reliability estimations depend strongly on uncertainty characterization. We contrast the reliability-based optimal designs to the ones obtained using worst-case optimization, and ask the question of how to obtain non-conservative designs with incomplete uncertainty information. We propose an answer to this question through the use of Bayesian statistics. We estimate the truck's engine reliability based only on available samples, and demonstrate that the accuracy of our estimates increases as more samples become available.

Often, when assessing the distraction or ease of use of an in-vehicle task (such as entering a destination using the street address method), the first question is “How long does the task take on average?” Engineers routinely resolve this question using computational models. For in-vehicle tasks, “how long” is estimated by summing times for the included task elements (e.g., decide what to do, press a button) from SAE Recommended Practice J2365 or now using new static (while parked) data presented here. Times for the occlusion conditions in J2365 and the NHTSA Distraction Guidelines can be determined using static data and Pettitt’s Method or Purucker’s Method. These first approximations are reasonable and can be determined quickly. The next question usually is “How likely is it that the task will exceed some limit?”

A program to explore the effects of natural and additive-derived cetane on various aspects of diesel performance and combustion has been carried out. Procedures have been developed to measure diesel engine fuel consumption and power to a high degree of precision. These methods have been used to measure fuel consumption and power in three heavy-duty direct-injection diesel engines. The fuel matrix consisted of three commercial fuels of cetane number (CN) of 40-42, the same fuels raised to CN 48-50 with a cetane improver additive, and three commercial fuels of base CN 47-50. The engines came from three different U.S. manufacturers and were of three different model years and emissions configurations. Both fuel economy and power were found to be significantly higher for the cetane-improved fuels than for the naturally high cetane fuels. These performance advantages derive mainly from the higher volumetric heat content inherent to the cetane-improved fuels.

There is a strong evidence that the overrepresentation of teen drivers in motor vehicle crashes is mainly due to their poor hazard perception skills, i.e., they are unskilled at appropriately detecting and responding to roadway hazards. This study evaluates two cuing systems designed to help teens better understand their driving environment. Both systems use directional color-coding to represent different levels of proximity between one’s vehicle and outside agents. The first system provides an overview of the location of adjacent objects in a head-up display in front of the driver and relies on drivers’ focal vision (focal cuing system). The second system presents similar information, but in the drivers’ peripheral vision, by using ambient lights (peripheral cuing system). Both systems were retrofitted into a test vehicle (2014 Toyota Camry). A within-subject experiment was conducted at the University of Michigan Mcity test-track facility.

An advanced design methodology is developed for innovative composite structure concepts which can be used in the Army's future ground vehicle systems to protect vehicle and occupants against various explosives. The multi-level and multi-scenario blast simulation and design system integrates three major technologies: a newly developed landmine-soil-composite interaction model; an advanced design methodology, called Function-Oriented Material Design (FOMD); and a novel patent-pending composite material concept, called BTR (Biomimetic Tendon-Reinforced) material. Example results include numerical simulation of a BTR composite under a blast event. The developed blast simulation and design system will enable the prediction, design, and prototyping of blast-protective composite structures for a wide range of damage scenarios in various blast events.

This study documented the position and orientation of child restraint systems (CRS) installed in the second rows of vehicles, creating a database of 486 installations. Thirty-one different CRS were evaluated, selected to provide a range of manufacturers, sizes, types, and weight limits. Eleven CRS were rear-facing only, fourteen were convertibles, five were combination restraints, and one was a booster. Ten top-selling vehicles were selected to provide a range of manufacturers and body styles: four sedans, four SUVS, one minivan, and one wagon. CRS were marked with three reference points on each moving component. The contours and landmarks of each CRS were first measured in the laboratory. Vehicle interior contours, belt anchors, and LATCH anchors were measured using a similar process. Then each CRS was installed in a vehicle using LATCH according to manufacturers' directions, and the reference points of each CRS component were measured to document the installed orientation.

While the results are generally the most exciting aspects of an LCI study, the details of the LCI model that generates the results are equally significant; particularly when modeling the life cycle of an automobile. The modeling challenges faced in conducting the US AMP LCI of a mid-sized vehicle based on the 1995 Lumina, Intrepid and Taurus are highlighted. The number of parts (over 20,000), supply chain complexity, materials composition, and the demanding set of OEM requirements for model features required special LCI methods and solutions. The LCI model and selected results are compared with previous studies, and recommendations for improvements in the USAMP LCI model are also provided. This paper is one of six SAE publications discussing the results and execution of the USCAR AMP Generic Vehicle LCI. The papers in this series are (Overview of results 982160, 982161, 982162, 982168, 982169, 982170).

The U.S. EPA initiated the Common Sense Initiative (CSI) to develop “Cleaner, Cheaper, Smarter” environmental policy and management practices. This paper addresses the application of life cycle design and assessment tools to automotive instrument panels (IP) as part of the Automotive Manufacturing Sector CSI pilot project investigation. For this study, an “average IP” was modeled based on the instrument panels of three mid-sized U.S. car models: 1995 Chevrolet Lumina, 1996 Dodge Intrepid and 1996 Ford Taurus. This “average IP” consisted of seventeen different materials and weighed over 22 kg (49 lbs.). A life cycle inventory analysis was conducted to evaluate the environmental burdens associated with materials production, manufacturing, use, and retirement. A thorough evaluation of solid waste production and energy consumption was completed and partial inventories of air emission and water effluent releases were also conducted.