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Understanding reliability is critical in design, maintenance and durability analysis of engineering systems. A reliability simulation methodology is presented in this paper for vehicle fleets using limited data. The method can be used to estimate the reliability of non-repairable as well as repairable systems. It can optimally allocate, based on a target system reliability, individual component reliabilities using a multi-objective optimization algorithm. The algorithm establishes a Pareto front that can be used for optimal tradeoff between reliability and the associated cost. The method uses Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the system failure rate and reliability as a function of time. The probability density functions (PDF) of the time between failures for all components of the system are estimated using either limited data or a user-supplied MTBF (mean time between failures) and its coefficient of variation.

To impact the decision making for military ground vehicles, we are using High Performance Computing (HPC) to speed up the time for analyzing the reliability of a design in modeling and simulation. We use parallelization to get accurate results in days rather than months. We can obtain accurate reliability prediction with modeling and simulation, using uncertainties and multiple physics-of-failure, but by utilizing parallel computing we get results in much less time than conventional analysis techniques.

This research paper addresses the ground vehicle reliability prediction process based on a new integrated reliability prediction framework. The integrated stochastic framework combines the computational physics-based predictions with experimental testing information for assessing vehicle reliability. The integrated reliability prediction approach incorporates the following computational steps: i) simulation of stochastic operational environment, ii) vehicle multi-body dynamics analysis, iii) stress prediction in subsystems and components, iv) stochastic progressive damage analysis, and v) component life prediction, including the effects of maintenance and, finally, iv) reliability prediction at component and system level. To solve efficiently and accurately the challenges coming from large-size computational mechanics models and high-dimensional stochastic spaces, a HPC simulation-based approach to the reliability problem was implemented.

The US Army is seeking to advance simulation methods for assessing the performance and reliability of ground vehicles. The reliability is defined as the probability that the Army vehicle performs its function over a specified period of time and under specified loading conditions; it can be viewed as a measure of successful performance of the component, sub-assembly and eventually whole vehicle. For the structural reliability calculation to be meaningful, it must be coupled with durability evaluation. The durability describes the ability of the structure to endure or resist applied loading. Maximum benefit would be obtained when both the reliability and durability are maximized. Such an outcome is highly desired, especially if it is achieved at low cost and low weight.