Complex Systems Method Applied to Identify Carbon Dioxide Emission Reductions for Light-Duty Vehicles for the 2020-2025 Timeframe
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Department of Transportation's National Highway and Traffic Safety Administration, and the California Air Resources Board have recently released proposed new regulations for greenhouse gas emissions and fuel economy for light-duty vehicles and trucks in model years 2017-2025. These proposed regulations intend to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase fleet fuel economy from current levels. At the fleet level, these rules the proposed regulations represent a 50% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by new vehicles in 2025 compared to current fleet levels. At the same time, global growth, especially in developing economies, should continue to drive demand for crude oil and may lead to further fuel price increases. Both of these trends will therefore require light duty vehicles (LDV) to significantly improve their greenhouse gas emissions over the next 5-15 years to meet regulatory requirements and customer demand.