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This paper presents the development of a computer model to simulate fuel usage and emission contributions of the past and future truck and bus population in the United States. The projected future years are beyond 1976 to 1990. The trends in vehicle population growth, yearly miles traveled and ton-miles are also calculated by the model. The model developed is flexible and brings together several technical concepts which reflect recent inputs from industry and government. The formulation of the model is based on a systems approach, in which the several submodels (the "Population," "Mileage," "Fuel Usage," and "Emission") are interrelated. The preliminary quantitative results are discussed to demonstrate the satisfactory performance of the computer model. Increased rates of dieselization are analyzed to determine their effect on reducing fuel consumption and the impact on total emission contributions. The use of the computer model to study an urban area for air quality is discussed.

This paper presents an approach to modeling the United States truck and bus population. A detailed model is developed that utilizes domestic factory sales figures combined with a scrappage factor as a building block for the total population. Comparison with historical data for 1958-1970 shows that the model follows trends well for intermediate parameters such as total vehicle miles per year, total fuel consumption, scrappage, etc. Fuel consumption and HC, CO, NO2, CO2 and particulate matter emissions for gasoline and diesel engines are of primary interest. The model details these parameters for the time span 1958-2000 in one-year increments. For HC and CO, truck and bus emissions could equal or exceed automobile emissions in the early 1980s, depending on the degree of control. Three population control strategies are analyzed to determine their effects on reducing fuel consumption or air pollution in later years.