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Transport policy research seeks to predict and substantially reduce the future transport-related greenhouse gas emissions and fuel consumption to prevent negative climate change impacts and protect the environment. However, making such predictions is made difficult due to the uncertainties associated with the anticipated developments of the technology and fuel situation in road transportation, which determine the total fuel use and emissions of the future light-duty vehicle fleet. These include uncertainties in the performance of future vehicles, fuels' emissions, availability of alternative fuels, demand, as well as market deployment of new technologies and fuels. This paper develops a methodology that quantifies the impact of uncertainty on the U.S. transport-related fuel use and emissions by introducing a stochastic technology and fleet assessment model that takes detailed technological and demand inputs.

A methodology is presented with which aggregate emissions from the in-use automobile population can be calculated for any given calendar year. The data base needed for such a calculation is discussed, and areas in which further research is needed are pointed out. Results of a series of calculations are then presented showing the effect on aggregate emissions of various control strategies. The effects of an inspection/maintenance and retrofit program, different vehicle population growth rates, catalyst deterioration in use, and various schedules of new car emission standards for post-1975 vehicles are presented. It is shown that the rate at which old, higher-polluting vehicles are retired from the in-use vehicle population is the major factor in determining the rate at which aggregate emissions will decrease in the 1970s, with the precise level of post-1975 standards only becoming important in the 1980s.

Among the recent research ideas to reduce hydrocarbon emissions emitted from SI engines till light-off of catalyst since cold start are those exploiting non-thermal plasma technique and photo-catalyst that draws recent attention by virtue of its successful application to practical use to clean up the atmosphere using the feature of its relative independence on temperature. Based on the previous research results [6] obtained with model exhaust gases using an experimental emissions reduction system that utilizes the non-thermal plasma and photo-catalyst technique, further investigation was conducted on a production N/A 1.5 liter DOHC gasoline engine during cold start to warm-up. For the effects of non-thermal plasma-photocatalyst combined reactor, 10% concentration reduction was achieved with the fuel component paraffins, and the large increase in non-fuel paraffinic components and acetylene concentrations were similar to those of base condition.