Estimating the Expected Effectiveness of Enhanced Ground Proximity Warning Systems in Reducing Controlled Flight Into Terrain by Aircraft Operating under Part-135 2000-01-2105

In order to reduce “Controlled Flight Into Terrain” (CFIT) accidents the FAA proposed, in 1998, the regulation that Enhanced Ground Proximity Warning Systems (EGPWS) should be installed in all turbine powered aircraft with 6 or more seats for passengers, operating under Federal Aviation Regulation Part-135 (commuter and charter operations). We analyzed all Part-135 crashes of this type using NTSB aviation accident data from 1983 to 1998. There were 15 crashes involving CFIT. We asked 26 experienced pilots to examine the brief narratives of the crashes and to estimate the probability that had the aircraft been equipped with EGPWS, the crews would have avoided the crashes. Based on the ratings, the median probability that Part 135 crashes would be avoided using EGPWS was 59%. We describe the nature of the crashes, the human factors involved and the reasons why the enhanced terrain warning is only partly effective.