Comparison of Several Model Validation Conceptions against a “Real Space” End-to-End Approach 2011-01-0238

This paper¹ explores some of the important considerations in devising a practical and consistent framework and methodology for working with experiments and experimental data in connection with modeling and prediction. The paper outlines a pragmatic and versatile “real-space” approach within which experimental and modeling uncertainties (correlated and uncorrelated, systematic and random, aleatory and epistemic) are treated to mitigate risk in modeling and prediction. The elements of data conditioning, model conditioning, model validation, hierarchical modeling, and extrapolative prediction under uncertainty are examined. An appreciation can be gained for the constraints and difficulties at play in devising a viable end-to-end methodology. The considerations and options are many, and a large variety of viewpoints and precedents exist in the literature, as surveyed here. Rationale is given for the various choices taken in assembling the novel real-space end-to-end framework. The framework adopts some elements and constructs from the literature (sometimes adding needed refinement), rejects others (even some currently popular ones), and adds pivotal new elements and constructs. Crucially, the approach reflects a pragmatism and versatility derived from working many industrial-scale problems involving complex physics and constitutive models, steady-state and time-varying nonlinear behavior and boundary conditions, and various categories of uncertainty in experiments and models. The framework benefits from a broad exposure to integrated experimental and modeling activities in the areas of heat transfer, structural mechanics, irradiated electronics, and combustion in fluids and solids.²