Enabling Prediction for Optimal Fuel Economy Vehicle Control 2018-01-1015

Vehicle control using prediction based optimal energy management has been demonstrated to achieve better fuel economy resulting in economic, environmental, and societal benefits. However, research focusing on prediction derivation for use in optimal energy management is limited despite the existence of hundreds of optimal energy management research papers published in the last decade. In this work, multiple data sources are used as inputs to derive a prediction for use in optimal energy management. Data sources include previous drive cycle information, current vehicle state, the global positioning system, travel time data, and an advanced driver assistance system (ADAS) that can identify vehicles, signs, and traffic lights. To derive the prediction, the data inputs are used in a nonlinear autoregressive artificial neural network with external inputs (NARX). Two real world drive cycles were developed for analysis in the Denver, Colorado region: a city-focused drive cycle that passes through downtown as well as a highway-focused drive cycle that transitions across multiple interstates. A validated model of a 2010 Toyota Prius in Autonomie is used to determine the vehicle control fuel economy improvements that are possible from the NARX prediction. The optimal energy management control strategy is determined using dynamic programming due to its ease of use and that the solution produced is the globally optimal solution. The control strategies compared include the existing 2010 Toyota Prius control strategy as a baseline, the neural network prediction optimal energy management control strategy, and a 100% accurate prediction optimal energy management control strategy. Results show that inclusion of various sensors and signals enables a significant amount of the fuel economy improvement with respect to 100% accurate prediction. The conclusion is that prediction based optimal energy management enabled fuel economy improvements can be realized with currently available sensors and signals.