Quantifying the Sensitive Parameters of the New Energy Vehicles in China 2023-01-0883

To achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, the Chinese government has put effort into decarbonizing the transportation sector. Consequently, China elaborated a new energy vehicle strategy promoting the production of electric vehicles and expanding into hydrogen (H₂) vehicle technologies including fuel cell electric vehicles and H₂ internal combustion engine vehicles. The Transportation Energy Analysis Model (TEAM) projects the market penetration as well as energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in China up to 2050. By integrating the Monte Carlo simulation, this study tests the robustness of TEAM and investigates the key parameters that will shape passenger vehicle sales and emissions in the future. The results show that fuel cell cost, H₂ price, and battery cost are the most sensitive parameters for H₂ vehicle technologies.