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The present study had three objectives: (1) define a reasonable number of categories to bin head injuries, (2) develop an overarching risk function to estimate head-injury probability based on injury probabilities pertaining to those subordinate categories, and (3) assess the fidelity of both the overarching function and approximations to it. To achieve these objectives, we used real-world data from the National Automotive Sampling System (NASS), pertaining to adult drivers in full-engagement frontal crashes. To provide practical value, we factored the proposed US New Car Assessment Program (US NCAP) and the corresponding Request for Comments from the government. Finally, the NASS data stratifications included three levels of injury (AIS1+, AIS2+, AIS3+), two levels of restraint (properly-belted, unbelted), and two eras based on driver-airbag fitment (Older Vehicles, Newer Vehicles).

Transfer or response equations are important as they provide relationships between the responses of different surrogates under matched, or nearly identical loading conditions. In the present study, transfer equations for different body regions were developed via mathematical modeling. Specifically, validated finite element models of the age-dependent Ford human body models (FHBM) and the mid-sized male Hybrid III (HIII50) were used to generate a set of matched cases (i.e., 192 frontal sled impact cases involving different restraints, impact speeds, severities, and FHBM age). For each impact, two restraint systems were evaluated: a standard three-point belt with and without a single-stage inflator airbag. Regression analyses were subsequently performed on the resulting FHBM- and HIII50-based responses. This approach was used to develop transfer equations for seven body regions: the head, neck, chest, pelvis, femur, tibia, and foot.

Injury distributions of belted drivers in 1998-2013 model-year light passenger cars/trucks in various types of real-world frontal crashes were studied. The basis of the analysis was field data from the National Automotive Sampling System (NASS). The studied variables were injury severity (n=2), occupant body region (n=8), and crash type (n=8). The two levels of injury were moderate-to-fatal (AIS2+) and serious-to-fatal (AIS3+). The eight body regions ranged from head/face to foot/ankle. The eight crash types were based on a previously-published Frontal Impact Taxonomy (FIT). The results of the study provided insights into the field data. For example, for the AIS2+ upper-body-injured drivers, (a) head and chest injury yield similar contributions, and (b) about 60% of all the upper-body injured drivers were from the combination of the Full-Engagement and Offset crashes.

In the present study, transfer equations relating the responses of post-mortem human subjects (PMHS) to the mid-sized male Hybrid III test dummy (HIII50) under matched, or nearly-identical, loading conditions were developed via math modeling. Specifically, validated finite element (FE) models of the Ford Human Body Model (FHBM) and the HIII50 were used to generate sets of matched cases (i.e., 256 frontal impact cases involving different impact speeds, severities, and PMHS age). Regression analyses were subsequently performed on the resulting age-dependent FHBM- and HIII50-based responses. This approach was conducted for five different body regions: head, neck, chest, femur, and tibia. All of the resulting regression equations, correlation coefficients, and response ratios (PHMS relative to HIII50) were consistent with the limited available test-based results.

A three-step process was developed to estimate fracture criteria for a human body model. The process was illustrated via example wherein skull fracture criteria were estimated for the Ford Human Body Model (FHBM)~a finite element model of a mid-sized human male. The studied loading condition was anterior-to-posterior, blunt (circular/planar) cylinder impact to the frontal bone. In Step 1, a conditional reference risk curve was derived via statistical analysis of the tests involving fractures in a recently reported dataset (Cormier et al., 2011a). Therein, Cormier et al., authors reported results for anterior-to-posterior dynamic loading of the frontal bone of rigidly supported heads of male post mortem human subjects, and fracture forces were measured in 22 cases. In Step 2, the FHBM head was used to conduct some underlying model validations relative to the Cormier tests. The model-based Force-at-Peak Stress was found to approximate the test-based Fracture Force.

Various frontal impact risk curves were assessed for the next-generation USA New Car Assessment Program (NCAP). Specifically, the “NCAP risk curves” — those chosen by the government for the 2011 model year NCAP — as well as other published risk curves were used to estimate theoretically the injury rates of belted drivers in real-world frontal crashes. Two perspectives were considered: (1) a “point” estimate of NCAP-type events from NCAP fleet tests, and (2) an “aggregate” estimate of 0 ≤ ΔV ≤ 56 km/h crashes from a modeled theoretical vehicle whose NCAP performance approximated the average of the studied fleet. Four body regions were considered: head, neck, chest, and knee-thigh-hip complex (KTH). The curve-based injury rates for each body region were compared with those of real-world frontal crashes involving properly-belted adult drivers in airbag-equipped light passenger vehicles. The assessment yielded mixed results.