Technical Paper
Sample-Based Estimation of Vehicle Speeds from Yaw Marks: Bayesian Implementation Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation
2014-04-01
2014-01-0467
The critical speed method uses measurements of the radii of yawmarks left by vehicles, together with values for centripetal acceleration, to estimate the speeds of the vehicles when the yawmarks were made. Several field studies have indicated that equating the centripetal force with braking friction produced biased estimates, but that the biases tended to be small (e.g. within 10%-15% on average) and led to underestimates, suggesting that the method can be useful for forensic purposes. Other studies, however, have challenged this conclusion. The critical speed method has also seen use in safety-related research, where it is important to have a reliable assessment of the uncertainty associated with a speed estimate. This paper describes a variant of the critical speed method, where data from field tests lead to an informative prior probability distribution for the centripetal acceleration.
