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This paper analyzes the aging of zeolite based hydrocarbon traps to guide development of diagnostic algorithms. Previous research has shown the water adsorption ability of zeolite ages along with the hydrocarbon adsorption ability, and this leads to a possible diagnostic algorithm: the water concentration in the exhaust can be measured and related to aging. In the present research, engine experiments demonstrate that temperature measurements are also related to aging. To examine the relationship between temperature-based and moisture-based diagnostic algorithms, a transient, nonlinear heat and mass transfer model of the exhaust during cold-start is developed. Despite some idealizations, the model replicates the qualitative behavior of the exhaust system. A series of parametric studies reveals the sensitivity of the system response to aging and various noise factors.