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The introduction of ceramic engine components and ceramic-intensive engines for transportation applications will significantly affect the U.S. economy and the state of International competition in this advanced-technology field. A worldwide Delphi survey of more than 150 experts in this field provided data on the expected timing and rate of that led to market penetration projections. By the mid-1990s, according to the projections, a substantial number of ceramic engine components will be in production and ceramic-intensive engines will be introduced. Annual energy savings impacts are projected to be 380 trillion Btu, worth $5.5 billion, in 2010. The U.S. gross national product (GNP) could differ by $42 billion (in 1986 dollars) in 2001, depending on whether the U.S. or another nation leads in manufacturing engine ceramics.

A study is described that was conducted to provide a realistic technical and economic assessment of the use of advanced ceramic materials technology for heat engines in transportation applications. Key results from a worldwide Delphi survey are presented on the expected timing and rate of market development for ceramic engine components and engines. These results show that, by the mid 1990s, a substantial number of ceramic engine components will be in production and ceramic-intensive engines will be introduced. Also presented in the study are benefits and barriers to the use of ceramic technology in heat engines and other relevant factors influencing its rate of adoption. A modeling approach is presented that uses the survey data to produces a series of market penetration curves for individual ceramic engine components for light- and heavy-duty applications under different scenarios.

The development of high-strength structural ceramics has many implications for advanced engine technology. Turbocharger rotors are an ideal early application of structural ceramics and are already in production in small volumes. Aside from the technical achievement this represents, what are the measurable benefits to employing this new technology to production vehicles from the manufacturer's and drivers point of view? This paper examines the results of a number of back-to-back performance tests of production vehicles equipped with ceramic and conventional turbochargers. The purpose was to more clearly quantify the benefits of this advanced turbo-charger technology. A variety of acceleration tests were conducted by both independents and manufacturers. In addition, personal observations are included from more than 20,000 miles and a year of experience driving a production turbocharged car with a ceramic turbocharger.