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The global transportation industry, and road freight in particular, faces formidable challenges in reducing Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions; both Europe and the US have already enabled legislation with CO2 / GHG reduction targets. In Europe, targets are set on a fleet level basis: a CO2 baseline has already been established using Heavy Duty Vehicle (HDV) data collected and analyzed by the European Environment Agency (EEA) in 2019/2020. This baseline data has been published as the reference for the required CO2 reductions. More recently, the EU has proposed a Zero Emissions Vehicle definition of 3g CO2/t-km. The Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) designation is expected to be key to a number of market instruments that improve the economics and practicality of hydrogen trucks. This paper assesses the permissible amount of carbon-based fuel in hydrogen fueled vehicles – the Pilot Energy Ratio (PER) – for each regulated subgroup of HDVs in the baseline data set.

In 2023, the European Union set more ambitious targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from passenger cars: the new fleet-wide average targets became 93.6 g/km for 2025, 49.5 g/km in 2030, going to 0 in 2035. One year away from the 2025 target, this study evaluates what contribution to CO2 reduction was achieved from new conventional vehicles and how to interpret forecasts for future efficiency gains. The European Commission’s vehicle efficiency cost-curves suggest that optimal technology adoption can guarantee up to 50% CO2 reduction by 2025 for conventional vehicles. Official registration data between 2013 and 2022, however, reveal only an average 14% increase in fuel efficiency in standard combustion vehicles, although reaching almost 23% for standard hybrids. The smallest gap between certified emissions and best-case scenarios is of 14 g/km, suggesting that some manufacturers’ declared values are approaching the optimum.

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