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This paper reports on the interim progress of the Honda-DRI ACAT-II program initiated by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). The objectives of the ACAT-II program were further development of a formalized Safety Impact Methodology (SIM) for estimating the capability of advanced technology applications installed in vehicles to address specific types of motor vehicle crashes, and to evaluate driver acceptance of the technologies. This particular ACAT study extended earlier work by Honda and DRI in the NHTSA ACAT-I program by extending the SIM so as to be able to analyze head-on crashes more completely, and by using the extended SIM to evaluate of a pre-production version of a Honda Head-on Crash Avoidance Assist System (HCAAS).

Quantifying the independent effects of vehicle weight and size on overall vehicle safety is necessary in order to assess the risks and benefits of vehicle weight reduction. This paper describes the results of one-stage and two-stage logistic regression analyses of the effects of passenger vehicle weight, wheelbase, track, and footprint on fatalities per accident, accidents per exposure (e.g., vehicle-miles-traveled), and fatalities per exposure using national and multi-state traffic accident and exposure databases. The analyses were accomplished in two phases. The first phase used 1995 though 2000 calendar year data for 1991 through 1999 model year vehicles. The second phase used 2002 through 2008 calendar year data for 2000 through 2007 model year vehicles.

A prototype safety analysis system has been developed to assess and forecast vehicle safety that can assist vehicle developers integrate various safety technologies into future production vehicles. The prototype system can be used to assess the actual safety in existing vehicles based on fatal accident and vehicle registration data (e.g., US FARS and Polk data); and to estimate the safety in future vehicles based on the estimated effectiveness of candidate passive and active safety technologies (e.g., Curtain Airbags, CMBS) using a systems model with a representative sample of in-depth accident data (e.g., NASS/CDS). Therefore, the prototype system is a useful tool which can be used to estimate the net overall effectiveness of various candidate safety technologies combined, providing a metric which can be used to help optimize the effectiveness of integrated vehicle safety systems.

An understanding of the independent effects of vehicle weight and size on overall vehicle safety is necessary in order to assess the risks and benefits of vehicle weight reduction. This paper describes the results of statistical analyses of 1985 to 1998 model year passenger cars and 1985 to 1997 model year light trucks and vans (LTVs) involved in traffic accidents in the US from 1995 to 1999 to quantify these effects. The analyses involved aggregate linear regression and logistic regression of US FARS fatal accident data, state accident data, and vehicle registration data, using methods based on or adapted from methods described in published NHTSA Technical Reports.

An analysis of vehicle tip stability in NHTSA Side Impact New Car Assessment Program (SINCAP) tests was conducted in order to better understand the causes of possible tip-over in such a test, and the potential relationship to occupant safety. Analyses were conducted of accident data involving light passenger vehicle rollovers. SINCAP tests conducted at several facilities with SUV-type vehicles were reviewed. A computer simulation model of the SINCAP test was developed and used to analyze the effects on vehicle tip-over of variations in vehicle and test facility parameters. It was found that fatal accidents involving “multi-vehicle rollover” (ie, SINCAP like conditions) were the least frequent among four accident types examined; and that SUV’s had the lowest fatality rate in such accidents, among the four vehicle types examined.