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This paper discusses, illustrates and validates a novel modeling approach capable of predicting two-dimensional ice accretion on airfoils. The external flow field around a NACA 0012 airfoil is computed using a potential approach with a panel code. In addition to calculating droplet trajectories and impingement locations on the airfoil, the model tracks the behaviour and motion of individual fluid elements on the icing surface. While the envelope of possible behaviour and motion of the elements is constrained by the macroscopic environmental and flight conditions, an intrinsic stochastic variability is present in the model, even under constant external conditions. A partial validation of the model has been successfully accomplished.