Search Results

In reconstructing any accident, the reconstructionist must properly account for uncertainty in their analysis. One popular method of examining and quantifying the uncertainty within an analysis is the use of Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The methods have been well established and published over the last several years by numerous authors. One of the key factors underlying the Monte Carlo analysis is the assumed probability distribution of the individual factors within the analysis. The literature has examples and recommendations for assuming normal, uniform, or custom distributions for input parameters. However, the literature to date has not examined how the assumption of a distribution affects the resulting probability distribution of the Monte Carlo analysis. This paper attempts to address this issue.