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This research paper addresses the ground vehicle reliability prediction process based on a new integrated reliability prediction framework. The integrated stochastic framework combines the computational physics-based predictions with experimental testing information for assessing vehicle reliability. The integrated reliability prediction approach incorporates the following computational steps: i) simulation of stochastic operational environment, ii) vehicle multi-body dynamics analysis, iii) stress prediction in subsystems and components, iv) stochastic progressive damage analysis, and v) component life prediction, including the effects of maintenance and, finally, iv) reliability prediction at component and system level. To solve efficiently and accurately the challenges coming from large-size computational mechanics models and high-dimensional stochastic spaces, a HPC simulation-based approach to the reliability problem was implemented.

To impact the decision making for military ground vehicles, we are using High Performance Computing (HPC) to speed up the time for analyzing the reliability of a design in modeling and simulation. We use parallelization to get accurate results in days rather than months. We can obtain accurate reliability prediction with modeling and simulation, using uncertainties and multiple physics-of-failure, but by utilizing parallel computing we get results in much less time than conventional analysis techniques.

This paper addresses some aspects of an on-going multiyear research project for US Army TARDEC. The focus of the research project has been the enhancement of the overall vehicle reliability prediction process. This paper describes briefly few selected aspects of the new integrated reliability prediction approach. The integrated approach uses both computational mechanics predictions and experimental test databases for assessing vehicle system reliability. The integrated reliability prediction approach incorporates the following computational steps: i) simulation of stochastic operational environment, ii) vehicle multi-body dynamics analysis, iii) stress prediction in subsystems and components, iv) stochastic progressive damage analysis, and v) component life prediction, including the effects of maintenance and, finally, iv) reliability prediction at component and system level.

The paper illustrates how probabilistic physics-based models can be used for risk-based condition assessment and life prediction of aircraft jet engines, including the uncertainties in maintenance activities. Although this paper focuses on engines, the proposed approach can be extended elsewhere. Probabilistic modeling includes all significant uncertainties that affect engine reliability, such as flight conditions, loading history, manufacturing deviations, material properties and behavior under random loading and maintenance activities. Maintenance uncertainties include those related to NDI techniques and operator's skills. The paper shows the uncertainty effects of different NDI techniques, maintenance intervals, operator skills, etc. on the engine reliability. Unscheduled maintenance rates are computed for given a maintenance schedule.