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This paper develops a reliability-based methodology for the evaluation of stiffness degradation of spot-welded joints under high mileage. A global-local finite element analysis is used, with the loads on the detailed three-dimensional joint model coming from finite element analysis of the entire car model with proving ground loads. Probabilistic fatigue crack propagation analysis is developed for multi-axial variable amplitude loading history on the joint. Multiple spot welds contribute to the stiffness of the joint. Hence the problem is addressed through system reliability techniques. The effect of spot-weld separation on joint stiffness, and on global vehicle stiffness, is incorporated. This results in the computation of the statistics of vehicle stiffness degradation with mileage.