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Fatigue has been one of the main causes of failure in automotive components since the industry's beginnings. As the fatigue phenomenon is very complex and has a high degree of variability designs have traditionally been over-engineered, resulting in an increase in weight and cost. This paper investigates the predictability of the fatigue failure process in MIG welded joints due to the variability of the welding production process and the consequent uncertainty of the notch factor of the critical zone located at the transition line between the weld bead and the work piece. The study focuses on exhaust systems for cars, but the procedure and concepts presented here can be applied to any type of welded element.