Search Results

This study presents an evaluation of in-flight icing severity forecasts produced for the eastern United States for the winter 09/10 using the German ADWICE icing forecasting system. An instance of the underlying COSMO-EU 7km model was run over the eastern CONUS to produce four months worth of NWP data for the ADWICE algorithm. The generated icing fields were then verified using pilot reports (PIREPS) as “truth” data. In order to be able to characterize ADWICE performance over this non-native domain against a known quantity for this part of the world, a comparative verification was performed with the American FIP icing product over 1.5 months of data, using a unified set of observation PIREPS and forecast times. Subsequently, ADWICE forecasts were verified over the whole time period and analyzed with respect to seasonal, regional or altitude variations.