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Journal Article

On the Time-Dependent Reliability of Non-Monotonic, Non-Repairable Systems

2010-04-12
2010-01-0696
The system response of many engineering systems depends on time. A random process approach is therefore, needed to quantify variation or uncertainty. The system input may consist of a combination of random variables and random processes. In this case, a time-dependent reliability analysis must be performed to calculate the probability of failure within a specified time interval. This is known as cumulative probability of failure which is in general, different from the instantaneous probability of failure. Failure occurs if the limit state function becomes negative at least at one instance within a specified time interval. Time-dependent reliability problems appear if for example, the material properties deteriorate in time or if random loading is involved which is modeled by a random process. Existing methods to calculate the cumulative probability of failure provide an upper bound which may grossly overestimate the true value.
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