Search Results

Uncertainty about future costs and operating attributes of electric drive vehicles (EVs and HEVs) has contributed to considerable debate regarding the market viability of such vehicles. One way to deal with such uncertainty, common to most emerging technologies, is to pool the judgments of experts in the field. Data from a two-stage Delphi study are used to project the future costs and operating characteristics of electric drive vehicles. The experts projected basic vehicle characteristics for EVs and HEVs for the period 2000-2020. They projected the mean EV range at 179 km in 2000, 270 km in 2010, and 358 km in 2020. The mean HEV range on battery power was projected as 145 km in 2000, 212 km in 2010, and 244 km in 2020. Experts' opinions on 10 battery technologies are analyzed and characteristics of initial battery packs for the mean power requirements are presented.

The strong correlation between vehicle weight and fuel economy for conventional vehicles (CVs) is considered common knowledge, and the relationship of mass reduction to fuel consumption reduction for conventional vehicles (CVs) is often cited without separating effects of powertrain vs. vehicle body (glider), nor on the ground of equivalent vehicle performance level. This paper challenges the assumption that this relationship is easily summarized. Further, for hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) the relationship between mass, performance and fuel consumption is not the same as for CVs, and vary with hybrid types. For fully functioning (all wheel regeneration) hybrid vehicles, where battery pack and motor(s) have enough power and energy storage, a very large fraction of kinetic energy is recovered and engine idling is effectively eliminated.

The introduction of Toyota's hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), the Prius, in Japan has generated considerable interest in HEV technology among U.S. automotive experts. In a follow-up survey to Argonne National Laboratory's two-stage Delphi Study on electric and hybrid electric vehicles (EVs and HEVs) during 1994-1996, Argonne researchers gathered the latest opinions of automotive experts on the future “top-selling” HEV attributes and costs. The experts predicted that HEVs would have a spark-ignition gasoline engine as a power plant in 2005 and a fuel cell power plant by 2020. The projected 2020 fuel shares were about equal for gasoline and hydrogen, with methanol a distant third. In 2020, HEVs are predicted to have series-drive, moderate battery-alone range and cost significantly more than conventional vehicles (CVs). The HEV is projected to cost 66% more than a $20,000 CV initially and 33% more by 2020.