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Technical Paper

61 Fundamental Analysis of Motorcyclist Injury Risk Using A Statistical Model Based on Real-world Crashes

2002-10-29
2002-32-1830
This paper describes the risk of injury to the rider in a crash using a statistical model based on real-world accident data. We analyzed the road traffic accidents data in Los Angeles and Hanover. Logistic regression modeling technique was used to clarify the relationship among probabilities of minor, serious, fatal injury risk to the rider, and the influence of risk factors in accidents involving opposing vehicle contact point, motorcycle contact point, opposing vehicle speed, motorcycle speed, relative heading angle of impact, and helmet use. The odds ratio, which was adjusted for risk factors simultaneously, was estimated by using the developed technique, and was compared with the effects of risk factors individually. The results showed that there was a statistically significant relationship between minor and serious injuries and opposing vehicle speed, motorcycle speed and opposing vehicle contact point.
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