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For the purposes of analyzing and understanding the general effects of a set of different vehicle attributes on overall crash outcome a fleet model is used. It represents the impact response, in a one-dimensional sense, of two vehicle frontal crashes, across the frontal crash velocity spectrum. The parameters studied are vehicle mass, stiffness, intrusion, pulse shape and seatbelt usage. The vehicle impact response parameters are obtained from the NCAP tests. The fatality risk characterization, as a function of the seatbelt use and vehicle velocity, is obtained from the NASS database. The fatality risk is further mapped into average acceleration to allow for evaluation of the different vehicle impact response parameters. The results indicate that the effects of all the parameters are interconnected and none of them is independent. For example, the effect of vehicle mass on fatality risk depends on seatbelt use, vehicle stiffness, available crush, intrusion and pulse shape.

The objective of this study is to analytically model the fatality risk in frontal vehicle-to-vehicle crashes of the current vehicle fleet, and its sensitivity to vehicle mass change. A model is built upon an empirical risk ratio-mass ratio relationship from field data and a theoretical mass ratio-velocity change ratio relationship dictated by conservation of momentum. The fatality risk of each vehicle is averaged over the closing velocity distribution to arrive at the mean fatality risks. The risks of the two vehicles are summed and averaged over all possible crash partners to find the societal mean fatality risk associated with a subject vehicle of a given mass from a fleet specified by a mass distribution function. Based on risk exponent and mass distribution from a recent fleet, the subject vehicle mean fatality risk is shown to increase, while at the same time that for the partner vehicles decreases, as the mass of the subject vehicle decreases.

Forward Collision Warning (FCW) is a system intended to warn the driver in order to reduce the number of rear end collisions or reduce the severity of collisions. However, it has the potential to generate driver annoyances and unintended consequences due to high ineffectual (false or unnecessary) alarms with a corresponding reduction in the total system effectiveness. The ineffectual alarm rate is known to be closely associated with the “time to issue warning.” This results in a conflicting set of requirements. The earlier the time the warning is issued, the greater probability of reducing the severity of the impact or eliminating it. However, with an earlier warning time there is a greater chance of ineffectual warning, which could result in significant annoyance, frequent complaints and the driver's disengagement of the FCW. Disengaging the FCW eliminates its potential benefits.

The statistical analysis of vehicle crash accident data is generally problematic. Data from commonly used sources is almost never without error and complete. Consequently, many analyses are contaminated with modeling and system identification errors. In some cases the effect of influential factors such as crash severity (the most significant component being speed) driver behavior prior to the crash, etc. on vehicle and occupant outcome is not adequately addressed. The speed that the vehicle is traveling at the initiation of a crash is a significant contributor to occupant risk. Not incorporating it may make an accident analysis irrelevant; however, despite its importance this information is not included in many of the commonly used crash data bases, such as the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS). Missing speed information can result in potential errors propagating throughout the analysis, unless a method is developed to account for the missing information.