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This paper assesses the potential for car and light truck fuel economy improvements by 2010-15. We examine a range of refinements to body systems and powertrain, reflecting current best practice as well as emerging technologies such as advanced engine and transmission, lightweight materials, integrated starter-generators, and hybrid drive. Engine options are restricted to those already known to meet upcoming California emissions standards. Our approach is to apply a state-of-art vehicle system simulation model to assess vehicle fuel economy gains and performance levels. We select a set of baseline vehicles representing five major classes - Small and Standard Cars, Pickup Trucks, SUVs and Minivans - and analyze design changes likely to be commercially viable within the coming decade. Results vary by vehicle type.

In-use vehicles which are high emitters make a large contribution to the emissions inventory. It is not known, however, whether high-emitting vehicles share common emissions characteristics. We study this by first examining laboratory measurements of second-by-second engine-out and tailpipe emissions from a small number of MY90-97 high-emitting vehicles. We distinguish high-emitter types by the behavior of six ratios in low- and moderate-power driving: the engine-out emissions indices (engine-out pollutant to fuel-rate ratios) and the catalyst pass fractions (tailpipe to engine-out ratios) for CO, HC, and NOx. Four general types of high emitter are observed: 1) fuel-air ratio excessively lean, 2) fuel-air ratio excessively rich, 3) partial combustion such as misfire, and 4) severe deterioration in catalyst performance in vehicles where malfunctions of Types 1, 2 or 3 are not predominant. We also find that these behaviors may be chronic, or may only occur transiently.

This paper assesses the technical potential, costs and benefits of improving the fuel economy of light-duty trucks over the next five to ten years in the United States using conventional technologies. We offer an in-depth analysis of several technology packages based on a detailed vehicle system modeling approach. Results are provided for fuel economy, cost, oil savings and reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. We examine a range of refinements to body, powertrain and electrical systems, reflecting current best practice and emerging technologies such as lightweight materials, high-efficiency IC engines, integrated starter-generator, 42 volt electrical system and advanced transmission. In this paper, multiple technological pathways are identified to significantly improve fleet average light-duty-truck fuel economy to 27.0 MPG or higher with net savings to consumers.