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This paper assesses the potential for car and light truck fuel economy improvements by 2010-15. We examine a range of refinements to body systems and powertrain, reflecting current best practice as well as emerging technologies such as advanced engine and transmission, lightweight materials, integrated starter-generators, and hybrid drive. Engine options are restricted to those already known to meet upcoming California emissions standards. Our approach is to apply a state-of-art vehicle system simulation model to assess vehicle fuel economy gains and performance levels. We select a set of baseline vehicles representing five major classes - Small and Standard Cars, Pickup Trucks, SUVs and Minivans - and analyze design changes likely to be commercially viable within the coming decade. Results vary by vehicle type.

Information is readily available on how a vehicle model's emissions system performs under certification conditions, but it is not widely known how it performs after years of use. This study predicts the odometer dependence of in-use car emissions, in grams per mile (gpm), over many model years. To do this, model years are analyzed starting in the mid 1980's until the mid 1990's. High emitters are eliminated from the study using a vehicle probability distribution technique. Emissions data was obtained from EPA's long-term Federal Test Procedure (FTP) survey, AAMA, CARB's Light Duty Vehicle Surveillance Program (LDVSP 14), and University of California Riverside CMEM database. The UCR data includes second-by-second engine-out and tailpipe-out emissions. Emissions system durability was found by comparing the emissions of vehicles of the same model year at different odometer readings.