Powering Tomorrow's Light, Medium, and Heavy-Duty Vehicles: A Comprehensive Techno-Economic Examination of Emerging Powertrain Technologies 2024-01-2446

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of emerging powertrain technologies for a wide spectrum of vehicles, ranging from light-duty passenger vehicles to medium and heavy-duty trucks. The study focuses on the anticipated evolution of these technologies over the coming decades, assessing their potential benefits and impact on sustainability. The analysis encompasses simulations across a wide range of vehicle classes, including compact, midsize, small SUVs, midsize SUVs, and pickups, as well as various truck types, such as class 4 step vans, class 6 box trucks, and class 8 regional and long-haul trucks. It evaluates key performance metrics, including fuel consumption, estimated purchase price, and total cost of ownership, for these vehicles equipped with advanced powertrain technologies such as mild hybrid, full hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery electric, and fuel cell powertrains. Comparative assessments are conducted against conventional gasoline, diesel, and natural gas internal combustion engine vehicles, as applicable. A large-scale simulation process is employed, utilizing Autonomie for vehicle sizing and consumption evaluations and TechScape for techno-economic analysis, both of which were developed at Argonne National Laboratory. The research extends technology projections from 2023 to 2050, incorporating two technology progress scenarios: a business-as-usual (BAU) case representing currently projected improvements in vehicle efficiency, and a 'program success' case reflecting potential advancements resulting from the Department of Energy Vehicle Technologies Office and Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office research and development investments. The results reveal the significant potential of these emerging technologies to enhance cost-effectiveness and fuel efficiency. Battery-electric and fuel-cell-powered electric vehicles are identified as key contributors to the transition towards economically competitive and environmentally friendly transportation alternatives. The findings underscore the urgency of accelerating the development of component technologies to improve the range and cost-effectiveness of electrified powertrains, particularly in the trucking sector.