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Cost reduction and increasing production rates are driving automation of aerospace manufacturing. Articulated serial robots may replace bespoke gantry automation or human operations. Improved accuracy is key to enabling operations such as machining, additive manufacturing (AM), composite fabrication, drilling, automated program development, and inspection. New accuracy standards are needed to enable process-relevant comparisons between robotic systems. Accuracy can be improved through calibration of kinematic and joint stiffness parameters, joint output encoders, adaptive control that compensates for thermal expansion, and feedforward control that compensates for hysteresis and external loads. The impact of datuming could also be significantly reduced through modeling and optimization. Highly dynamic end effectors compensate high-frequency disturbances using inertial sensors and reaction masses.

While direct electrification appears to provide the most cost-effective route to decarbonization of commercial vehicles, uptake may be constrained by critical metal supply. Additionally, it will be many years before hydrogen power becomes decarbonized or if it can ever compete economically with direct electrification. An electric road system (ERS) could offer a highly efficient and cost-effective route to direct electrification that would greatly reduce the volume of batteries required, but pilot schemes are urgently needed to provide concrete data on operating costs for different ERS technologies. Furthermore, if plug-in hybrid electric vehicles could obtain most of their power from an ERS, liquid biofuels and “electrofuels” may prove useful for occasional off-grid range extension. To achieve extremely long-range for operation in remote locations, liquid fuels remain the only viable option.

A narrow focus on electrification and elimination of tailpipe emissions is unlikely to achieve decarbonization objectives. Renewable power generation is unlikely to keep up with increased demand for electricity. A focus on tailpipe emissions ignores the significant particulate pollution that “zero emission” vehicles still cause. It is therefore vital that energy efficiency is improved. Active travel is the key to green economic growth, clean cities, and unlocking the energy saving potential of public transport. The Challenges of Vehicle Decarbonization reviews the urgent need to prioritize active travel infrastructure, create compelling mass-market cycling options, and switch to hybrid powertrains and catenary electrification for long-haul heavy trucks. The report also warns of the potential increase in miles travelled with the advent of personal automated vehicles as well as the pitfalls of fossil-fuel derived hydrogen power.

Variable renewable energy (VRE), such as photovoltaic solar and wind turbines, will require new approaches to buffering energy within the grid. This must include significant ancillary services and longer duration storage to buffer seasonal variations in supply and demand. Such services may be economically provided by leveraging the battery resources of electric vehicles (EVs) for frequency response and energy storage for durations of up to a few hours, together with baseload and dispatchable power for longer duration buffering. Impact of Electric Vehicle Charging on Grid Energy Buffering discusses the unsettled issues and requirements needed to realize the potential of EV batteries for demand response and grid services, such as improved battery management, control strategies, and enhanced cybersecurity.

Electric road systems (ERS) enable dynamic charging—the most energy efficient and economical way to decarbonize road vehicles. ERS draw electrical power directly from the grid and enable vehicles with small batteries to operate without the need to stop for charging. The three main technologies (i.e., overhead catenary lines, road-bound conductive tracks, and inductive wireless systems in the road surface) are all technically proven; however, no highway system has been commercialized. Electric Road Systems for Dynamic Charging discusses the technical and economic advantages of dynamic charging and questions the current investment in battery-powered and hydrogen-fueled vehicles. Click here to access the full SAE EDGETM Research Report portfolio.

Power options for off-road vehicles differ substantially from other commercial vehicles. Battery electrification is suitable for urban construction and light agriculture, but remote mining, forestry, and road building operations will require alternative fuels. Decarbonized Power Options for Non-road Mobile Machinery discusses these domains as well as the potential benefits and challenges of implementing fuels and energy sources such as bioenergy, e-fuels, and alcohol, as well as hydrogen, hydrocarbon, and direct methanol fuel cells. Click here to access the full SAE EDGETM Research Report portfolio.

Most heavy trucks should be fully electric, using a combination of batteries and catenary electrification, but heavy trucks requiring very long unsupported range will need chemical fuels. At the scale of heavy trucks, compressed hydrogen can match the specific energy of diesel, but its energy density is five times lower, limiting range to around 2,000 km. Scaling green hydrogen production and addressing leakage must be priorities. Hydrogen-derived electrofuels—or “e-fuels”—have the potential to scale, and while the economic comparison currently has unknowns, clean air considerations have gained new importance Decarbonized Power Options for Long-haul Commercial Vehicles discusses these energy sources as well as the caveats related to bioenergy usage, and reasons to prefer ethanol or methanol to diesel-type fuels. Click here to access the full SAE EDGETM Research Report portfolio.

To achieve decarbonization through means such as energy-efficient vehicles, active travel, and electrified road freight, solutions must reduce upstream demands on supply chains. However, even taking such a path, the energy transition will massively increase demand for raw materials such as cobalt, nickel, platinum group metals, and rare earth elements. Many of the metals can be largely substituted if required, so they are not truly critical to decarbonization. Critical Metals, Sourcing, and Long Supply Chains: Constraints on Transport Decarbonization discusses how lithium, silver, and copper are much more difficult to replace, and the energy transition is highly likely to depend on them. Greatly increased and more geographically dispersed investments in mineral extraction are vital. Governments must support this by giving investors clear signals about the rate of the transition, geological survey data, accelerated permits, and government backed finance.

Replacing fossil-fueled vehicles with battery-electric ones is a risky strategy. It is likely to be limited by the supply of metals critical to battery and solar cell production, and the investment required in decarbonized electricity. Using hydrogen to store renewable energy would greatly reduce efficiency, further increasing the investment required to decarbonize the electricity supply. The lowest technical risk and most economical pathway to decarbonization is reducing private car use. Shorter journeys would be made by walking and cycling – also known as “active travel” – with public transport used for most longer journeys. Realizing this cultural change in transport behavior will first require comprehensive networks for safe and enjoyable active travel, which separate walking and cycling. All locations should connect to either a fully segregated cycleway or traffic calmed roadways with a maximum speed of 30 kph.

With the current state of automotive electrification, predicting which electrification pathway is likely to be the most economical over a 10- to 30-year outlook is wrought with uncertainty. The development of a range of technologies should continue, including statically charged battery electric vehicles (BEVs), fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and EVs designed for a combination of plug-in and electric road system (ERS) supply. The most significant uncertainties are for the costs related to hydrogen supply, electrical supply, and battery life. This greatly is dependent on electrolyzers, fuel-cell costs, life spans and efficiencies, distribution and storage, and the price of renewable electricity. Green hydrogen will also be required as an industrial feedstock for difficult-to-decarbonize areas such as aviation and steel production, and for seasonal energy buffering in the grid.

While platooning has the potential to reduce energy consumption of commercial vehicles while improving safety, both advantages are currently difficult to quantify due to insufficient data and the wide range of variables affecting models. Platooning will significantly reduce the use of energy when compared to trucks driven alone, or at a safe distance for a driver without any automated assistance. However, drivers typically drive closer to each other than recommended to achieve drafting efficiencies, which may shift the benefit of automated platooning to safety gains. More data will be needed to conclusively demonstrate these gains. Unsettled Issues in Commercial Vehicle Platooning discusses the technologies needed to enable close platooning, including brake system condition monitoring, vehicle-to-vehicle communication, and concrete infrastructure assessment. The report also looks at driver acceptance of platooning technology from a safety and job security perspective.