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A complete probabilistic model of uncertainty in probabilistic analysis and design problems is the joint probability distribution of the random variables. Often, it is impractical to estimate this joint probability distribution because the mechanism of the dependence of the variables is not completely understood. This paper proposes modeling dependence by using copulas and demonstrates their representational power. It also compares this representation with a Monte-Carlo simulation using dispersive sampling.

Styrene-Butadiene Rubber (SBR) is a copolymer of butadiene and styrene. It has a wide range of applications in the automotive industry due to its high durability, resistance to abrasion, oils and oxidation. SBR applications vary from tires to vibration isolators and gaskets. SBR is also used in tuned dampers which aim to reduce and control the angular vibrations of crankshafts, acting as an isolator and energy absorber between the tune damper's hub and the inertia ring. The dynamic properties of this polymer are therefore, very important in developing an appropriate analytical model. This paper presents the results of a series of experiments performed to determine the dynamic stiffness and damping properties of SBR. The frequency, temperature and displacement dependent properties are determined in a low frequency range from 0.4 to 150 Hz, and in a mid frequency range from 150 to 550 Hz. The most interesting property of SBR is its frequency dependent behavior.

A Reliability-Based Design Optimization (RBDO) method for multiple failure regions is presented. The method uses a Probabilistic Re-Analysis (PRRA) approach in conjunction with an approximate global metamodel with local refinements. The latter serves as an indicator to determine the failure and safe regions. PRRA calculates very efficiently the system reliability of a design by performing a single Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. Although PRRA is based on MC simulation, it calculates “smooth” sensitivity derivatives, allowing therefore, the use of a gradient-based optimizer. An “accurate-on-demand” metamodel is used in the PRRA that allows us to handle problems with multiple disjoint failure regions and potentially multiple most-probable points (MPP). The multiple failure regions are identified by using a clustering technique. A maximin “space-filling” sampling technique is used to construct the metamodel. A vibration absorber example highlights the potential of the proposed method.

In reliability design, often, there is scarce data for constructing probabilistic models. It is particularly challenging to model uncertainty in variables when the type of their probability distribution is unknown. Moreover, it is expensive to estimate the upper and lower bounds of the reliability of a system involving such variables. A method for modeling uncertainty by using Polynomial Chaos Expansion is presented. The method requires specifying bounds for statistical summaries such as the first four moments and credible intervals. A constrained optimization problem, in which decision variables are the coefficients of the Polynomial Chaos Expansion approximation, is formulated and solved in order to estimate the minimum and maximum values of a system’s reliability. This problem is solved efficiently by employing a probabilistic re-analysis approach to approximate the system reliability as a function of the moments of the random variables.

The door closing effort is a quality issue concerning both automobile designers and customers. This paper describes an Excel based mathematical model for predicting the side door closing effort in terms of the required minimum energy or velocity, to close the door from a small open position when the check-link ceases to function. A simplified but comprehensive model is developed which includes the cabin pressure (air bind), seal compression, door weight, latch effort, and hinge friction effects. The flexibility of the door and car body is ignored. Because the model simplification introduces errors, we calibrate it using measured data. Calibration is also necessary because some input parameters are difficult to obtain directly. In this work, we provide the option to calibrate the hinge model, the latch model, the seal compression model, and the air bind model. The door weight effect is geometrically exact, and does not need calibration.

An approach for Probabilistic Reanalysis (PRA) of a system is presented. PRA calculates very efficiently the system reliability or the average value of an attribute of a design for many probability distributions of the input variables, by performing a single Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, PRA calculates the sensitivity derivatives of the reliability to the parameters of the probability distributions. The approach is useful for analysis problems where reliability bounds need to be calculated because the probability distribution of the input variables is uncertain or for design problems where the design variables are random. The accuracy and efficiency of PRA is demonstrated on vibration analysis of a car and on system reliability-based optimization (RBDO) of an internal combustion engine.

An efficient reliability estimation method is presented for engineering systems with multiple failure regions and potentially multiple most probable points. The method can handle implicit, nonlinear limit-state functions, with correlated or non-correlated random variables, which can be described by any probabilistic distribution. It uses a combination of approximate or “accurate-on-demand,” global and local metamodels which serve as indicators to determine the failure and safe regions. Samples close to limit states define transition regions between safe and failure domains. A clustering technique identifies all transition regions which can be in general disjoint, and local metamodels of the actual limit states are generated for each transition region.

Quality and performance are two important customer requirements in vehicle design. Driveline clunk negatively affects the perceived quality and must be therefore, minimized. This is usually achieved using engine torque management, which is part of engine calibration. During a tip-in event, the engine torque rate of rise is limited until all the driveline lash is taken up. However, the engine torque rise, and its rate can negatively affect the vehicle throttle response. Therefore, the engine torque management must be balanced against throttle response. In practice, the engine torque rate of rise is calibrated manually. This paper describes a methodology for calibrating the engine torque in order to minimize the clunk disturbance, while still meeting throttle response constraints. A set of predetermined engine torque profiles are calibrated in a vehicle and the transmission turbine speed is measured for each profile. The latter is used to quantify the clunk disturbance.

Finite element analysis is a well-established methodology in structural dynamics. However, optimization and/or probabilistic studies can be prohibitively expensive because they require repeated FE analyses of large models. Various reanalysis methods have been proposed in order to calculate efficiently the dynamic response of a structure after a baseline design has been modified, without recalculating the new response. The parametric reduced-order modeling (PROM) and the combined approximation (CA) methods are two re-analysis methods, which can handle large model parameter changes in a relatively efficient manner. Although both methods are promising by themselves, they can not handle large FE models with large numbers of DOF (e.g. 100,000) with a large number of design parameters (e.g. 50), which are common in practice. In this paper, the advantages and disadvantages of the PROM and CA methods are first discussed in detail.

Reliability-based design optimization accounts for variation. However, it assumes that statistical information is available in the form of fully defined probabilistic distributions. This is not true for a variety of engineering problems where uncertainty is usually given in terms of interval ranges. In this case, interval analysis or possibility theory can be used instead of probability theory. This paper shows how possibility theory can be used in design and presents a computationally efficient sequential optimization algorithm. The algorithm handles problems with only uncertain or a combination of random and uncertain design variables and parameters. It consists of a sequence of cycles composed of a deterministic design optimization followed by a set of worst-case reliability evaluation loops. A crank-slider mechanism example demonstrates the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed sequential algorithm.

Existing methods for design optimization under uncertainty assume that a high level of information is available, typically in the form of data. In reality, however, insufficient data prevents correct inference of probability distributions, membership functions, or interval ranges. In this article we use an engine design example to show that optimal design decisions and reliability estimations depend strongly on uncertainty characterization. We contrast the reliability-based optimal designs to the ones obtained using worst-case optimization, and ask the question of how to obtain non-conservative designs with incomplete uncertainty information. We propose an answer to this question through the use of Bayesian statistics. We estimate the truck's engine reliability based only on available samples, and demonstrate that the accuracy of our estimates increases as more samples become available.

The staircase fatigue test method is a well-established, but poorly understood probe for determining fatigue strength mean and standard deviation. The sensitivity of results to underlying distributions was studied using Monte Carlo simulation by repeatedly sampling known distributions of hypothetical fatigue strength data with the staircase test method. In this paper, the effects of the underlying distribution on staircase test results are presented with emphasis on original normal, lognormal, Weibull and bimodal data. The results indicate that the mean fatigue strength determined by the staircase testing protocol is largely unaffected by the underlying distribution, but the standard deviation is not. Suggestions for conducting staircase tests are provided.

Early in the engineering design cycle, it is difficult to quantify product reliability or compliance to performance targets due to insufficient data or information for modeling the uncertainties. Design decisions are therefore, based on fuzzy information that is vague, imprecise qualitative, linguistic or incomplete. The uncertain information is usually available as intervals with lower and upper limits. In this work, the possibility theory is used to assess design reliability with incomplete information. The possibility theory can be viewed as a variant of fuzzy set theory. A possibility-based design optimization method is proposed where all design constraints are expressed possibilistically. It is shown that the method gives a conservative solution compared with all conventional reliability-based designs obtained with different probability distributions.

An accurate and efficient Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method is developed in this paper for limit state-based reliability analysis, especially at system levels, by using a response surface approximation of the failure indicator function. The Moving Least Squares (MLS) method is used to construct the response surface of the indicator function, along with an Optimum Symmetric Latin Hypercube (OSLH) as the sampling technique. Similar to MCS, the proposed method can easily handle implicit, highly nonlinear limit-state functions, with variables of any statistical distributions and correlations. However, the efficiency of MCS can be greatly improved. The method appears to be particularly efficient for multiple limit state and multiple design point problem. A mathematical example and a practical example are used to highlight the superior accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method over traditional reliability methods.

There are two sorts of uncertainty inherent in engineering design, the random and the epistemic. Random, or stochastic, uncertainty deals with the randomness or predictability of an event. It is well understood, easily modeled using classical probability, and ideal for such uncertainties as variations in manufacturing processes or material properties. Epistemic uncertainty deals with our lack of knowledge, our lack of information, and our own and others' subjectivity concerning design parameters. Epistemic uncertainty plays a particularly important role in the early stages of engineering design, when a lack of information about nominal values of parameters is much more important than potential variations in those parameters. Design reuse, or the design of product platforms, is an example in which epistemic uncertainty can play a crucial role in early design.

High vibration levels at the rear bearing cap and oil pump were observed in dyno tests for a particular design of a V6 engine at a rated speed of 4800 r/min. It was found experimentally that the crankshaft-flywheel assembly had a bending resonance at 240 Hz which was excited at around 4800 r/min by 3rd order forces on the crankshaft. A newly developed crankshaft system model (CRANKSYM) was used to analytically verify the above finding and propose possible solutions to the problem. CRANKSYM can perform a coupled analysis among the crankshaft structural dynamics, main bearing hydrodynamics and engine block flexibility. It considers the flywheel dynamics (including the gyroscopic effect), belt loads, crankshaft “bent” and block misboring, and the anisotropy of the block flexibility as seen from a rotating crankshaft. It can also calculate the dynamic stresses on the crankshaft throughout the whole engine cycle. A brief description of CRANKSYM is given in the paper.