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Warranty forecasting of repairable systems is very important for manufacturers of mass produced systems. It is desired to predict the Expected Number of Failures (ENF) after a censoring time using collected failure data before the censoring time. Moreover, systems may be produced with a defective component resulting in extensive warranty costs even after the defective component is detected and replaced with a new design. In this paper, we present a forecasting method to predict the ENF of a repairable system using observed data which is used to calibrate a Generalized Renewal Processes (GRP) model. Manufacturing of products may exhibit different production patterns with different failure statistics through time. For example, vehicles produced in different months may have different failure intensities because of supply chain differences or different skills of production workers, for example.

Assessing the dynamic performance of multilayer plates subjected to impulsive loading is of interest for identifying configurations that either absorb energy or transmit the energy in the transverse directions, thereby mitigating the through-thickness energy propagation. A reduced-order modeling approach is presented in this paper for rapidly evaluating the structural dynamic performance of various multilayer plate designs. The new approach is based on the reverberation matrix method (RMM) with the theory of generalized rays for fast analysis of the structural dynamic characteristics of multilayer plates. In the RMM model, the waves radiated from the dynamic load are reflected and refracted at each interface between layers, and the waves within each layer are transmitted with a phase lag. These two phenomena are represented by the global scattering matrix and the global phase matrix, respectively.

Using the total probability theorem, we propose a method to calculate the failure rate of a linear vibratory system with random parameters excited by stationary Gaussian processes. The response of such a system is non-stationary because of the randomness of the input parameters. A space-filling design, such as optimal symmetric Latin hypercube sampling or maximin, is first used to sample the input parameter space. For each design point, the output process is stationary and Gaussian. We present two approaches to calculate the corresponding conditional probability of failure. A Kriging metamodel is then created between the input parameters and the output conditional probabilities allowing us to estimate the conditional probabilities for any set of input parameters. The total probability theorem is finally applied to calculate the time-dependent probability of failure and the failure rate of the dynamic system. The proposed method is demonstrated using a vibratory system.

Ride control of military vehicles is challenging due to varied terrain and mission requirements such as operating weight. Achieving top speeds on rough terrain is typically considered a key performance parameter, which is always constrained by ride discomfort. Many military vehicles using passive suspensions suffer with compromised performance due to single tuning solution. To further stretch the performance domain to achieving higher speeds on rough roads, semi-active suspensions may offer a wide range of damping possibilities under varying conditions. In this paper, various semi-active control strategies are examined, and improvements have been made, particularly, to the acceleration-driven damper (ADD) strategy to make the approach more robust for varying operating conditions. A seven degrees of freedom ride model and a quarter-car model were developed that were excited by a random road process input modeled using an auto-regressive time series model.

Implications of decision analysis (DA) on engineering design are important and well-documented. However, widespread adoption has not occurred. To that end, the authors recently proposed decision topologies (DT) as a visual method for representing decision situations and proved that they are entirely consistent with normative decision analysis. This paper addresses the practical issue of assessing the DTs of a designer using their responses. As in classical DA, this step is critical to encoding the DA's preferences so that further analysis and mathematical optimization can be performed on the correct set of preferences. We show how multi-attribute DTs can be directly assessed from DM responses. Furthermore, we show that preferences under uncertainty can be trivially incorporated and that topologies can be constructed using single attribute topologies similarly to multi-linear functions in utility analysis. This incremental construction simplifies the process of topology construction.

The reliability theory of repairable systems is vastly different from that of non-repairable systems. The authors have recently proposed a ‘decision-based’ framework to design and maintain repairable systems for optimal performance and reliability using a set of metrics such as minimum failure free period, number of failures in planning horizon (lifecycle), and cost. The optimal solution includes the initial design, the system maintenance throughout the planning horizon, and the protocol to operate the system. In this work, we extend this idea by incorporating flexibility and demonstrate our approach using a smart charging electric microgrid architecture. The flexibility is realized by allowing the architecture to change with time. Our approach “learns” the working characteristics of the microgrid. We use actual load and supply data over a short time to quantify the load and supply random processes and also establish the correlation between them.

The goal of this work is to develop an efficient numerical modeling method for the vibration of hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) battery packs to support probabilistic forced response simulations and fatigue life predictions. There are two important sources of variations in HEV battery packs that affect their structural dynamic response. One source is the uncertain level of pre-stress due to bolts or welds used for joining cells within a pack. The other source is small structural variations among the cells of a battery pack. The structural dynamics of HEV battery packs are known to feature very high modal density in many frequency bands. That is because packs are composed of nominally identical cells. The high modal density combined with small, random structural variations among the cells can lead to drastic variations in the dynamic response compared with those of the ideal nominal system.

Design optimization often relies on computational models, which are subjected to a validation process to ensure their accuracy. Because validation of computer models in the entire design space can be costly, we have previously proposed an approach where design optimization and model validation, are concurrently performed using a sequential approach with variable-size local domains. We used test data and statistical bootstrap methods to size each local domain where the prediction model is considered validated and where design optimization is performed. The method proceeds iteratively until the optimum design is obtained. This method however, requires test data to be available in each local domain along the optimization path. In this paper, we refine our methodology by using polynomial regression to predict the size and shape of a local domain at some steps along the optimization process without using test data.

Reliability is an important engineering requirement for consistently delivering acceptable product performance through time. It also affects the scheduling for preventive maintenance. Reliability usually degrades with time increasing therefore, the lifecycle cost due to more frequent failures which result in increased warranty costs, costly repairs and loss of market share. In a lifecycle cost based design, we must account for product quality and preventive maintenance using time-dependent reliability. Quality is a measure of our confidence that the product conforms to specifications as it leaves the factory. For a repairable system, preventive maintenance is scheduled to avoid failures, unnecessary production loss and safety violations. This article proposes a methodology to obtain the optimal scheduling for preventive maintenance using time-dependent reliability principles.

Real-time driving simulations are an important tool for verifying vehicle and vehicle component designs with a driver in the loop. They not only provide a cost effective solution but also an ability to verify designs in a safe and controlled operating environment. A real-time driving experiment has been developed for Stryker to compare the ride and handling performance of a baseline passive suspension to that of a Magneto-Rheological (MR) semi-active damper suspension. The Tank Automotive Research Development and Engineering Center (TARDEC) has integrated this new suspension into a real time vehicle dynamics model of the Stryker using the MR suspension model developed by the Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM). Using this real-time model and the TARDEC Ride Motion Simulator (RMS), TARDEC associates, along with associates from the Stryker Program Management office and the suspension OEM were able to drive and compare the passive and MR Stryker in a virtual environment.

In this paper a Multi-Level System (MLS) optimization algorithm is presented and utilized for the multi-discipline design of a ground vehicle track. The MLS can guide the decision making process for designing a complex system where many alternatives and many mutually competing objectives and disciplines need to be considered and evaluated. Mathematical relationships between the design variables and the multiple discipline performance objectives are developed adaptively as the various design considerations are evaluated and as the design is being evolved. These relationships are employed for rewarding performance improvement during the decision making process by allocating more resources to the disciplines which exhibit the higher level of improvement. The track analysis demonstrates how a multi-discipline design approach can be pursued in ground vehicle applications.

Reaching a system level reliability target is an inverse problem. Component level reliabilities are determined for a required system level reliability. Because this inverse problem does not have a unique solution, one approach is to tradeoff system reliability with cost and to allow the designer to select a design with a target system reliability, using his/her preferences. In this case, the component reliabilities are readily available from the calculation of the reliability-cost tradeoff. To arrive at the set of solutions to be traded off, one encounters two problems. First, the system reliability calculation is based on repeated system simulations where each system state, indicating which components work and which have failed, is tested to determine if it causes system failure, and second, the task of eliciting and encoding the decision maker's preferences is extremely difficult because of uncertainty in modeling the decision maker's preferences.

Understanding reliability is critical in design, maintenance and durability analysis of engineering systems. A reliability simulation methodology is presented in this paper for vehicle fleets using limited data. The method can be used to estimate the reliability of non-repairable as well as repairable systems. It can optimally allocate, based on a target system reliability, individual component reliabilities using a multi-objective optimization algorithm. The algorithm establishes a Pareto front that can be used for optimal tradeoff between reliability and the associated cost. The method uses Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the system failure rate and reliability as a function of time. The probability density functions (PDF) of the time between failures for all components of the system are estimated using either limited data or a user-supplied MTBF (mean time between failures) and its coefficient of variation.