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Warranty forecasting of repairable systems is very important for manufacturers of mass produced systems. It is desired to predict the Expected Number of Failures (ENF) after a censoring time using collected failure data before the censoring time. Moreover, systems may be produced with a defective component resulting in extensive warranty costs even after the defective component is detected and replaced with a new design. In this paper, we present a forecasting method to predict the ENF of a repairable system using observed data which is used to calibrate a Generalized Renewal Processes (GRP) model. Manufacturing of products may exhibit different production patterns with different failure statistics through time. For example, vehicles produced in different months may have different failure intensities because of supply chain differences or different skills of production workers, for example.

The force required to assemble automotive electrical connectors has been tested using a range of mating speeds in a controlled lab environment. This set of tests answers questions often brought up regarding how mating speed significantly influences the required applied force. Data from these evaluations show small but consistent mate force changes with assembly speed. Sealed and unsealed connectors were found to respond differently to mating speed, which is explained using a theoretical analysis. The mechanical analysis explains what forces are involved and how they are influenced by speed. Practical recommendations are given on how mate force testing should be done to assure results are as useful as possible. Results show that that mating speed has a positive correlation to peak mate force. An opposite, negative, correlation for unsealed connectors was found. Follow-on discussion explains why slow and accurate testing is preferred to testing at the actual speeds seen in the plant.

We have recently obtained experimental data and used them to develop computational models to quantify occupant impact responses and injury risks for military vehicles during frontal crashes. The number of experimental tests and model runs are however, relatively small due to their high cost. While this is true across the auto industry, it is particularly critical for the Army and other government agencies operating under tight budget constraints. In this study we investigate through statistical simulations how the injury risk varies if a large number of experimental tests were conducted. We show that the injury risk distribution is skewed to the right implying that, although most physical tests result in a small injury risk, there are occasional physical tests for which the injury risk is extremely large. We compute the probabilities of such events and use them to identify optimum design conditions to minimize such probabilities.

Exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) has been proven an effective strategy for the ignition and combustion control in homogeneous charge compression ignition (HCCI) engines. Carbon dioxide (CO2), a major constituent in EGR, was found to pose a coupled effect on engine combustion: reduced intake oxygen concentration (dilution effect), increased gas heat capacity (thermal effect) and participation of CO2 in chemical reactions (chemical effect). In this paper, a numerical study using a detailed chemical kinetic model was conducted, aiming to isolate the dilution, thermal and chemical effects of CO2 on the two-stage auto-ignition process of n-heptane at engine-like pressure conditions. Four different initial temperatures were selected in this study, representing the low-temperature dominant region, the boundary between the low-temperature region and the negative temperature coefficient (NTC) region, the NTC region and the high temperature region, respectively.

In recent years, implementation of dual phase (DP) Advanced High Strength Steels (AHSS) and Ultra High Strength Steels (UHSS) is increasing in automotive components due to their superior structural performance and vehicle weight reduction capabilities. However, these materials are often sensitive to trimmed edge cracking if stretching along sheared edge occurs in such processes as stretch flanging. Tool wear is another major issue in the trimming of UHSS because of higher contact pressures at the interface between cutting tools and sheet metal blank caused by UHSS’s higher flow stresses and the presence of a hard martensitic in the microstructure. The objective of the present paper is to study the influence of trimming conditions and tool wear on quality of trimmed edge of DP980 steel sheet. For this purpose, mechanically trimmed edges were characterized for DP980 steel, sheared with six different cutting clearances (from 4% to 40% of the sheet thickness).

Experimental results on influence of trimming conditions on the shape of the sheared surface are combined with the results of stretching sheared samples after trimming. The objective of the research described in this paper is to study the mechanism of fracture initiation and cracks propagation during half-a-dog bone tensile test representing sheared edge stretching condition. One side of the sample had sheared surface obtained by the trimming process while the other side of the sample had a smooth surface. Significant attention was paid to understanding of fracture sources. An interrupted tensile test approach was employed to track fracture initiation and propagation during stretching of sheared surface. The results of the experimental study indicated that multiple sources of fracture were observed in the burr area for trimming with clearances exceeding 10% of the material thickness.

This paper develops a design paradigm for universal products. Universal design is term used for designing products and systems that are equally accessible to and usable by people with and without disabilities. Two common challenges for research in this area are that (1) There is a continuum of disabilities making it hard to optimize product features, and (2) There is no effective benchmark for evaluating such products. To exacerbate these issues, data regarding customer disabilities and their preferences is hard to come by. We propose a copula-based approach for modeling market coverage of a portfolio of universal products. The multiattribute preference of customers to purchase a product is modeled as Frank's Archimedean Copula. The inputs from various disparate sources can be collected and incorporated into a decision system.

Experimental results on influence of trimming conditions on the shape of the sheared surface are combined with the results of stretching sheared samples after trimming. The objective of the research described in this paper is to study the mechanism of fracture initiation and cracks propagation during half-a-dog bone tensile test representing sheared edge stretching condition. One side of the sample had sheared surface obtained by the trimming process while the other side of the sample had a smooth surface. Significant attention was paid to understanding of fracture sources. An interrupted tensile test approach was employed to track fracture initiation and propagation during stretching of sheared surface. The results of the experimental study indicated that multiple sources of fracture were observed in the burr area for trimming with clearances exceeding 10% of the material thickness.

Vehicle restraint system design is a difficult optimization problem to solve because (1) the nature of the problem is highly nonlinear, non-convex, noisy, and discontinuous; (2) there are large numbers of discrete and continuous design variables; (3) a design has to meet safety performance requirements for multiple crash modes simultaneously, hence there are a large number of design constraints. Based on the above knowledge of the problem, it is understandable why design of experiment (DOE) does not produce a high-percentage of feasible solutions, and it is difficult for response surface methods (RSM) to capture the true landscape of the problem. Furthermore, in order to keep the restraint system more robust, the complexity of restraint system content needs to be minimized in addition to minimizing the relative risk score to achieve New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) 5-star rating.

We propose a new metamodeling method to characterize the output (response) random process of a dynamic system with random parameters, excited by input random processes. The metamodel can be then used to efficiently estimate the time-dependent reliability of a dynamic system using analytical or simulation-based methods. The metamodel is constructed by decomposing the input random processes using principal components or wavelets and then using a few simulations to estimate the distributions of the decomposition coefficients. A similar decomposition is also performed on the output random process. A kriging model is then established between the input and output decomposition coefficients and subsequently used to quantify the output random process corresponding to a realization of the input random parameters and random processes. What distinguishes our approach from others in metamodeling is that the system input is not deterministic but random.

Implications of decision analysis (DA) on engineering design are important and well-documented. However, widespread adoption has not occurred. To that end, the authors recently proposed decision topologies (DT) as a visual method for representing decision situations and proved that they are entirely consistent with normative decision analysis. This paper addresses the practical issue of assessing the DTs of a designer using their responses. As in classical DA, this step is critical to encoding the DA's preferences so that further analysis and mathematical optimization can be performed on the correct set of preferences. We show how multi-attribute DTs can be directly assessed from DM responses. Furthermore, we show that preferences under uncertainty can be trivially incorporated and that topologies can be constructed using single attribute topologies similarly to multi-linear functions in utility analysis. This incremental construction simplifies the process of topology construction.

In this paper a design methodology for automotive heat exchangers has been applied which brings robustness into the design process and helps to optimize the design goals: as to maintain an optimal coolant temperature and to limit the vehicle underhood air temperature within a tolerable limit. The most influential design factors for the heat exchangers which affect the goals have been identified with that process. The paper summarizes the optimization steps necessary to meet the optimal functional goals for the vehicle as mentioned above. Taguchi's [1] Design for Six Sigma (DFSS) methods have been employed to conduct this analysis in a robust way.

In this paper, thermal models are developed based on experimental test data, and the physics of thermal systems. If experimental data is available, the data can be fitted to mathematical models that represent the system response to changes in its input parameters. Therefore, empirical models which are based on test data are developed. The concept of time constant is presented and applied to development of transient models. Mathematical models for component temperature changes during transient vehicle driving conditions are also presented. Mathematical models for climate control system warm up and cool-down are also discussed. The results show the significance of adopting this concept in analysis of vehicle test data, and in development of analytical models. The developed models can be applied to simulate the system or component response to variety of changes in input parameters. As a result, significant testing and simulation time can be saved during the vehicle development process.

Taguchi method is a technology to prevent quality problems at early stages of product development and product design. Parameter design method is an important part in Taguchi method which selects the best control factor level combination for the optimization of the robustness of product function against noise factors. The air induction system (AIS) provides clean air to the engine for combustion. The noise radiated from the inlet of the AIS can be of significant importance in reducing vehicle interior noise and tuning the interior sound quality. The porous duct has been introduced into the AIS to reduce the snorkel noise. It helps with both the system layout and isolation by reducing transmitted vibration. A CAE simulation procedure has been developed and validated to predict the snorkel noise of the porous ducted AIS. In this paper, Taguchi's parameter design method was utilized to optimize a porous duct design in an AIS to achieve the best snorkel noise performance.

Accurate numerical prediction of an engine thermal map at a wide range of engine operating conditions can help tune engine performance parameters at an early development stage. This study documents the correlation of an engine thermal simulation using the conjugate heat transfer (CHT) methodology with thermocouple data from an engine operating in a dynamometer and a vehicle drive cell. Three different operating conditions are matched with the simulation data. Temperatures predicted by simulation at specific sections, both at the intake and the exhaust sides of the engine are compared with the measured temperatures in the same location on the operating engine.

Advanced high strength steels (AHSS) offer a good balance of strength, durability, crash energy absorption and formability. Applications of AHSS for lightweight designs of automotive structures are accelerating in recent years to meet the tough new CAFE standard for vehicle fuel economy by 2025. At the same time, the new generation pickup cargo box is to be designed for a dramatic increase in payload. Upgrading the box material from conventional mild steels to AHSS is necessary to meet the conflicting requirements of vehicle light weighting and higher payload. In this paper, typical AHSS grades such as DP590 and DP780 were applied to selected components of the pickup cargo box for weight reduction while meeting the design targets for fatigue, strength and local stiffness.

In recent trend, there is a huge demand for lightweight chassis frame, which improves fuel efficiency and reduces cost of the vehicle. Stiffness based optimization process is simple and straightforward while durability (life) based optimizations are relatively complex, time consuming due to a two-step (Stress then life) virtual engineering process and complicated loading history. However, durability performances are critical in chassis design, so a process of optimization with simplified approach has been developed. This study talks about the process of chassis frame weight optimization without affecting current durability performance where complex durability load cases are converted to equivalent static loadcases and life targets are cascaded down to simple stress target. Sheet metal gauges and lightening holes are the parameters for optimization studies. The optimization design space is constrained to chassis unique parts.

Interference assessments of a stepped-radius power-train component moving within a deformed stepped bore often arise during engine and transmission development activities. For example, when loads are applied to an engine block, the block distorts. This distortion may cause a cam or crankshaft to bind or wear prematurely in its journals as the part rotates within them. Within an automatic transmission valve body, care must be taken to ensure valve body distortion under oil pressure, assembly, and thermal load does not cause spool valves to stick as they translate within the valve body. In both examples, the mechanical scenario to be assessed involves a uniform or stepped radius cylindrical part maintaining a designated clearance through a correspondingly shaped but distorted bore. These distortions can occur in cross-sections (“out-of-round”) or along the bore (in an “s” or “banana” shaped distortions).

Exposure in ISO 26262 is defined as the state of being in an operational situation that can be hazardous if coincident with the failure mode under analysis. An operational situation is defined as a scenario that can occur during a vehicle's life with examples given such as driving, parking, or maintenance. Accurately predicting exposure is one of the more difficult tasks in the ASIL determination. ISO 26262 Part 3 attempts to provide guidance in Annex B through tables of potential operational situations and associated exposure levels. However, the contents of these tables may not allow for an accurate prediction of exposure and may lead to an exposure value that is too high or too low. In this paper, we describe a potential method for determining exposure that considers a potential mishap scenario as a composition of multiple coincident operational situations rather than considering a single operational situation as indicated in the tables in Annex B of Part 3.

Response Surface Model (RSM)-based optimization is widely used in engineering design. The major strength of RSM-based optimization is its short computational time. The expensive real simulation models are replaced with fast surrogate models. However, this method may have some difficulties to reach the full potential due to the errors between RSM and the real simulations. RSM's accuracy is limited by the insufficient number of Design of Experiments (DOE) points and the inherent randomness of DOE. With recent developments in advanced optimization algorithms and High Performance Computing (HPC) capability, Direct Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (DMDO) receives more attention as a promising future optimization strategy. Advanced optimization algorithm reduces the number of function evaluations, and HPC cut down the computational turnaround time of function evaluations through fully utilizing parallel computation.