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Computer programs and models are playing an increasing role in simulating vehicle crashworthiness, dynamic, and fuel efficiency. To maximize the effectiveness of these models, the validity and predictive capabilities of these models need to be assessed quantitatively. For a successful implementation of Computer Aided Engineering (CAE) models as an integrated part of the current vehicle development process, it is necessary to develop objective validation metric that has the desirable metric properties to quantify the discrepancy between multiple tests and simulation results. However, most of the outputs of dynamic systems are multiple functional responses, such as time history series. This calls for the development of an objective metric that can evaluate the differences of the multiple time histories as well as the key features under uncertainty.

A copula-based approach for model bias characterization was previously proposed [18] aiming at improving prediction accuracy compared to other model characterization approaches such as regression and Gaussian Process. This paper proposes an adaptive copula-based approach for model bias identification to enhance the available methodology. The main idea is to use cluster analysis to preprocess data, then apply the copula-based approach using information from each cluster. The final prediction accumulates predictions obtained from each cluster. Two case studies will be used to demonstrate the superiority of the adaptive copula-based approach over its predecessor.